Global consumer confidence is holding up

Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 45.9, up 0.4 points vs. last month. The Expectations sub-index shows its first significant increase this year (+0.5 points), while the Investment and Jobs’ sub-indices barely show any change.   

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between November 25 and December 9, 2022.

While the Overall Index is up a small 0.4 points from last month, it continues to remain muted compared to the start of the year. It remains nearly three points lower than in January. The same is true of the Expectations and Investment sub-indices, which are down around four points since January. In contrast, the Jobs’ sub-index remains in-line with its readings to begin the year.

As 2022 comes to a close, downward trends in overall sentiment continue to be starkest in European countries, the United States, Canada, Japan and South Korea. In six of the G7 countries—the U.S., Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, and Japan—consumer confidence continues to sit near its lowest levels in more than a year.

This month, China (+2.7) and Italy (+1.5) are the only countries to show a significant month-over-month gain in their National Index (i.e., 1.5 points of more). However, no country shows a significant decline this month.

National Index Trends

China (72.2) holds the highest National Index score this month, and it is the only country with a score above 70. Saudi Arabia (69.5) and India (64.2) continue to be the only other countries with a National Index score above 60.

Similar to last month, just four other countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Australia (52.6), Brazil (52.0), the U.S. (50.4), and Mexico (50.3).  

Eight countries now show a National Index below 40: Spain (39.5), Belgium (38.8), South Korea (37.4), Poland (35.9), Japan (35.8), Argentina (35.5), Turkey (34.4), and Hungary (30.9). Consumer confidence in Japan has fallen nine points since the start of 2022, and currently sits at its lowest point since September 2020.

Just six countries have a National Index score that is significantly higher than in February 2022, prior to the start of the war in Ukraine: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, China and Mexico. In contrast, it is significantly lower than it was then in 15 countries.

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

• Four countries (Belgium, China, Israel, and Italy) show a significant gain (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment. Brazil is the only country to show a significant loss.
• Four countries (China, Italy, South Africa, and Brazil) show a significant gain in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. No country shows a significant month-to-month drop.
• China and Argentina show significant gains in their Jobs Index, while Saudi Arabia shows a significant month-to-month drop.

About the study 

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.