Global consumer confidence on the upswing as new year begins

All metrics show significant continued improvement.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US
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Ipsos’ Global Consumer Confidence Index this month reads at 46.6, up 0.7 point from last month. Sub-indices indicative of consumers’ sentiment about investment, employment, and their expectations all show comparable month-over-month gains. January is the second consecutive month showing improvement in the global consumer mood.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of all surveyed countries’ National Indices. This month’s installment is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,000 adults under the age of 75 from 23 countries conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform. This survey was fielded between December 23, 2022 and January 6, 2023.

The Overall, Expectations, and Investment index upticks bring them closer to their level of a year ago, although all three still lag by two or three points. In contrast, the Jobs Index, which did not experience as much of a dip in 2022, is on par with its reading of a year ago.

Also, trends differ widely across regions. Overall consumer sentiment is higher than one year ago on average across both Latin America and Middle East-Africa, and only slightly lower in Asia-Pacific. In all three regions, it is higher now than it was in January 2020, pre-pandemic. On the other hand, overall consumer confidence is significantly lower in Europe and North America than both a year ago (by 7 and 5 points, respectively) and pre-pandemic (by 6 and 8 points).

As 2023 begins, downward trends in overall sentiment remain starkest in European countries, the United States, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. In five of the G7 countries—the U.S., Canada, France, Great Britain, and Japan—consumer confidence continues to sit near its lowest levels in more than a year.

National Index Trends

This month, Mexico (+2.0), Italy (+1.9), and China (+1.5) are the only countries to show a significant month-over-month gain in their National Index (i.e., 1.5 points or more). However, for the second consecutive month, no country shows a significant decline.

China (73.6) and Saudi Arabia (70.3) continue to hold the highest National Index scores and are the only countries with a score above 70. India (64.6) is the only other country with a National Index score above 60.

The same four countries show a National Index above the 50-point mark: Australia (53.6), Brazil (53.4), Mexico (52.3), and the U.S. (50.2). Mexico sits at its highest point since July 2019, and Brazil is at its highest point since February 2014.

Six countries now show a National Index below 40: South Korea (37.7), Argentina (36.6), Poland (36.3), Japan (35.9), Turkey (34.0), and Hungary (31.8). Consumer confidence in Belgium (40.2) and Spain (40.4) have risen back above the 40-point mark after three and two consecutive months below this mark, respectively.  

Similar to last month, just six countries have a National Index score that is significantly higher than in February 2022, before the start of the war in Ukraine: Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Mexico, China, and India. In contrast, it is significantly lower than it was in February 2022 in 15 countries.

Jobs, Expectations, and Investment Index Trends

Among 23 countries:

  • Five countries (China, Poland, Belgium, Italy, and Germany) show a month-over-month significant gain (at least 1.5 points) in their Expectations Index, indicative of consumers’ outlook about their future financial situation, local economy, and jobs environment. For the second consecutive month, Brazil is the only country to show a significant loss.
  • Seven countries (Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Brazil, Germany, Italy, Hungary, and Belgium) show a significant gain in their Investment Index, indicative of consumers’ purchasing and investment confidence and their financial situation and outlook. Turkey is the only country to show a significant month-to-month drop.
  • China, South Africa, Brazil, and Argentina show significant gains in their Jobs Index, while Saudi Arabia shows a significant month-to-month drop for the second consecutive month.

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About the Study

These findings are based on data from Refinitiv/Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. The results are based on interviews with a total of 17,000+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, and South Africa; and aged 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

Learn more about the Ipsos Global Consumer Confidence Index and sub-indices via the interactive portal, Ipsos Consolidated Economic Indicators including graphic comparisons, trended data and all the questions on which they are based.

The author(s)

  • Nicolas Boyon Public Affairs, US