Consumer confidence falling throughout Europe

Global gains in consumer sentiment level off as coronavirus surges again.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
  • Kate Silverstein Public Affairs, US
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Standing at 42.1, Ipsos’s Global Consumer Confidence Index is down by one-tenth of a point from last month. After growing slightly in each of the past four months, the global consumer sentiment curve has flattened. This month’s index is 6.6 points lower than its pre-pandemic level of January and 4.6 points short of its 10-year historical average.

The Global Consumer Confidence Index is the average of 24 world markets’ National Indices. It is based on a monthly survey of more than 17,500 adults under the age of 75 conducted on Ipsos’ Global Advisor online platform.

This month, seven countries show a significant drop (1.5 points or more) in their National Index, compared to only two in October: Poland (-3.9), Italy (-2.2), France (-2.1), Germany (-1.8), Spain (-1.5), Russia (-1.5), and Turkey (-1.5). Notably not included on this list is Argentina, which broke a three-month downward trend in November by holding flat (+0.3). November is the second consecutive month in which Turkey experiences a significant loss.

On the plus side, significant growth is seen in the National Index of five countries: Australia (+2.3), Israel (+1.7), Japan (+1.6), South Africa (+1.5), and South Korea (+1.5). Japan is showing significant growth for the third consecutive month while Australia and South Africa have seen significant growth across the past two.

National Index Trends

Compared to January, each one of all 24 countries’ National Index is down except China’s (+3.2). China’s National Index has been on par with or above its January level each month since July.

  • While 11 of the 24 countries surveyed had a National Index higher than 50 back in January, this is now the case for only four countries: China (72.9), Saudi Arabia (60.7), Sweden (53.0), and the United States (52.2).
  • At the other end of the spectrum, six countries now have a National index at or below 35, compared to just one (Turkey) in January: Russia (35.0), Poland (34.6), Argentina (33.7), South Africa (33.1), Spain (32.2), and Turkey (30.0).

Expectations, Jobs, and Investment Index Trends

At a global level, the Jobs Index (+0.1) and Investment Index (0.0) both hold steady while the Expectations Index (-0.6) is showing a slight decline versus last month.

  • The Jobs Index (48.1 globally), indicative of confidence in job security and the employment outlook, is showing significant gains in six countries and significant drops in six other countries – the most observed losses since July.
  • The Investment Index, indicative of the investment climate is showing no change from last month at 36.2 globally. November is the Index’s first month without any growth since June. It is up significantly in five countries and down significantly in three – Poland (-3.5), Italy (-1.9), and Turkey (-1.8). This is the second month of losses for both Poland and Turkey.
  • The Expectations Index, reflective of consumers’ outlook on their local economy, financial situation, and employment is down globally (by 0.6 points from last month to 52.,2) for the first time since May. It is down significantly in six countries, all part of the European Union.
These findings are based on data from Refinitiv /Ipsos’ Primary Consumer Sentiment Index (PCSI) collected in a monthly survey of consumers from 24 markets via Ipsos’ Global Advisor online survey platform. For this survey, Ipsos interviews a total of 17,500+ adults aged 18-74 in the United States of America, Canada, Israel, Turkey, South Africa; and age 16-74 in all other markets each month. The monthly sample consists of 1,000+ individuals in each of Australia, Brazil, Canada, China (mainland), France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Spain, Great Britain, and the U.S., and 500+ individuals in each of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Israel, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.

The author(s)

  • Chris Jackson Public Affairs, US
  • Kate Silverstein Public Affairs, US

Consumer & Shopper