Half of People Believe UK Will Vote to Leave the EU

The survey is published on Europe Day, the anniversary of the Schumann declaration arguing for greater political cooperation in Europe, viewed as one of the founding moments of the European Union.

The survey of between 500 and 1,000 online adults aged under 65 in Belgium, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Spain and Sweden (plus Britain and five non-European countries), finds 49%1 of Europeans think Britain will vote to leave the EU. Between them, the nine EU countries surveyed represent around three-quarters of the EU population and approximately 80% of its GDP. This figure varies between a majority in Italy and France (60% and 58% respectively) thinking that Britain will vote to leave, to 42% in Germany. In Great Britain itself the number of people who believe that the Brexit vote will prevail is in a minority – 35% of Britons think that Britain will vote to leave the EU.

Views outside the EU, in North American (Canada and the US) and three major Commonwealth countries (India, Australia and South Africa), are closer to those of Britons. Across those five countries, 38% think that Britain will vote to leave the EU.

Almost half (45%) of Europeans in the researched countries think their own country should hold a referendum on its EU membership. Again support for a referendum varies, though is never lower than four in ten, from 38% in Hungary to majorities in Italy and France (58% and 55%).