Mixed reception for the third Turnbull/Morrison budget - Fairfax Ipsos Poll

The national poll of 1,200 respondents, interviewed from 9-12 May 2018, shows the Labor party on 54% (up two points since April), with the Coalition on 46% (down two points since April), based on 2016 election preferences. 

“This indicates a 4.4% swing against the Coalition Government since the July 2016 Federal election,” Ipsos Director Jessica Elgood said.

The two-party stated preference vote shows the Labor party on 53% (up three points since April) and the Coalition on 47% (down three points since April).

First preference votes put Labor on 37% (up three points since April) and the Coalition unchanged on 36% (unchanged since April).   The Greens are on 11% (down 1 point since April), One Nation is on 5% (down three points since April), Nick Xenophon Team is on 1% and others are on 8%.

Nine per cent of respondents are undecided.  These are excluded from the two-party stated preference figures.

Key findings

• Leaders’ approval ratings: Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is 51% (up four points since April), and disapproval at 39% (down four points since April). Opposition Leader Bill Shorten’s approval rating is 39% (up one point since April), and disapproval at 51% (down two points since April).
• Preferred Prime Minister: 52% prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the Prime Minister (unchanged since April); 32% prefer Bill Shorten (up one point since April)
• Fair Budget: 39% believe the budget was fair and 33% think it was unfair.
• Personal affect of the Budget: 38% think they’ll personally be better off as a consequence of the Budget; the highest rating of personal benefit from a Budget since 2006.
• Tax cuts or paying off government debt: 57% would prefer the Government to use extra revenue to pay off government debts; 37% prefer this revenue to be used to cut income tax.

Leaders’ approval and preferred Prime Minister                                                                   

Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating has continued to improve, 51% (up four points since April); his disapproval rating is 39% (down four points since April).  This gives a positive net approval of +12 (up eight points since April); his most positive approval rating since April 2016.  His approval rating of 51% is the highest for a PM at Budget time since Kevin Rudd in 2009.

Bill Shorten’s approval rating has nudged up to 39% (up one point since April) and his disapproval rating is 51% (down two points since April).  This gives a net approval of -12 (up three points since April). 

Malcolm Turnbull remains the preferred Prime Minister, at 52%, unchanged since April; 32% favour Bill Shorten as Prime Minister (up one point since April). 

Fair Budget

On balance, Australians consider the third Turnbull/Morrison Budget fair, but do so by a narrow margin; 39% believe it was fair, and 33% say it was not a fair budget (net fair +6).  Furthermore, almost three in ten (28%) don’t have an opinion.

This positive balance of opinion means the Budget was seen as more fair than the 2016 and 2017 Turnbull/Morrison budgets.

The Budget was seen as fair by the majority of Coalition voters (65%), but was seen as fair by only small minorities of Labor (24%) and Green voters (17%) suggesting it failed to persuade those not currently Liberal or National party supporters.

It also was more likely to be seen as fair among high income voters, at 45% (those with a household income of over $100,000 per year), than among medium ($40,000-$100,000 per year), at 39%, or low income voters (under $40,000 per year), at 35%.

Personal affect of the Budget

More than a third (38%) believe they will personally be better off following this Budget; a quarter (25%) think they will be worse off and almost two in five (37%) think it will make no difference or ‘don’t know’.  Not since the 11^th Howard/Costello budget, in 2006, has the public been so likely to believe that they will personally be better off following a Federal Budget.

Perceived Budget impact divides along party lines, with the majority (53%) of Coalition voters think they will personally benefit from the Budget measures, but only 29% of Labor and 33% of Greens voters think they will feel better off.

Tax cuts or paying off government debt

Despite welcoming the personal benefits of the Budget, the majority (57%) of Australians would have preferred that the Government use extra revenue to pay off government debts; only 37% prefer the Coalition’s chosen approach of cutting income tax.

Coalition voters are significantly more likely than other party supporters to prefer using revenue to pay off government debts (68%, compared to 52% among Labor voters and 49% among Greens voters).

Poll Profile    

Fieldwork dates: 9-12 May 2018

Sample size: 1,200 respondents

Sample: National, aged 18+, 30% of sample comprised mobile phone numbers.

Method: Telephone, using random digit dialling.

Statistical reliability: ±2.9% is the maximum margin of sampling error that might apply to this sample

Analysis: The data has been weighted to reflect the population distribution.