From the beginning, Joe Biden was favored. But President Trump enjoyed structural advantages based on Ipsos’ analysis of hundreds of past election results. His incumbency and approval rating gave him about a one-in-four chance at reelection and a 50%+ chance of a tight race. Therefore, Ipsos projected this to be a close race, with the most likely outcome being a narrow Biden victory in the electoral college and a stronger edge in the popular vote. At this writing, the networks have declared Joe Biden is indeed the president-elect.
Throughout 2020, Ipsos has been tracking, researching and polling on four overarching topics: the pandemic, the economy, the social justice movement and the election. Now that the election is over, this Point of View represents Ipsos’ initial, but data-driven and considered thinking on what comes next.