The U.S. election is over: What's next?

From the beginning, Joe Biden was favored. But President Trump enjoyed structural advantages based on Ipsos' analysis of hundreds of past election results.

From the beginning, Joe Biden was favored. But President Trump enjoyed structural advantages based on Ipsos’ analysis of hundreds of past election results. His incumbency and approval rating gave him about a one-in-four chance at reelection and a 50%+ chance of a tight race. Therefore, Ipsos projected this to be a close race, with the most likely outcome being a narrow Biden victory in the electoral college and a stronger edge in the popular vote. At this writing, the networks have declared Joe Biden is indeed the president-elect.

Throughout 2020, Ipsos has been tracking, researching and polling on four overarching topics: the pandemic, the economy, the social justice movement and the election. Now that the election is over, this Point of View represents Ipsos’ initial, but data-driven and considered thinking on what comes next.

Download

The author(s)

  • Alexandre Guerin
    Country Manager, Ipsos in France

Related news

  • The Human Advantage Conference 2026: Highlights
    Artificial Intelligence (AI) Events replay

    The Human Advantage Conference 2026: Highlights

    Ipsos is proud to support The Human Advantage 2026, a flagship event bringing together some of the world's leading experts and key industry figures to explore how behavioural science, AI, and human intelligence can address the critical challenges facing businesses and society. Here's a look back at two days of live coverage.
  • [WEBINAR] KEYS: Dialling Up the S In Sustainability
    KEYS Events replay

    [REPLAY] KEYS: Dialling Up the S In Sustainability

    In the next episode of our KEYS webinar, we’ll be asking whether now is the time when organisations should be ‘dialling up the S’ in their sustainability initiatives.
  • [Webinar] Real-World Evidence: Empowering the Patient
    Healthcare Webinar

    [Replay] Real-World Evidence: Empowering the Patient

    Patient voices are now central to regulatory, HTA and commercial decisions. But how do we move beyond tick-box engagement to evidence that truly reflects lived experience? Join our expert panel for a 360° perspective on making patient-centricity work in practice.