A post-referendum survey carried out by Ipsos MORI for BBC Newsnight reveals that leave voters and remain voters still hold very opposing views towards the EU referendum result, while very few on either side say they would change their vote if a second referendum were to be held.
The research, carried out online among 18-75 year olds, finds that 89% of leave voters say that the referendum result was the right decision for the United Kingdom, while exactly the same proportion of remain voters say it was the wrong one. Similarly, 80% of leave voters say the result makes them feel more hopeful for the future, but 83% of remain voters say it makes them less hopeful.
The vast majority of those who said they voted on June 23rd say they would vote the same way in a second referendum – 90% of leave voters and 94% of remain voters. Remain voters are marginally more certain that they would not change their mind (85% say they would definitely vote the same way, compared with 79% of leave voters).
The public are split on the prospects for another general election. While 33% do not want to see another general election this year (another 33% hold the opposing view), just under half (48%) agree there should be another election before negotiations with the EU start so people can vote on political parties’ plans for Britain’s future relationship with the EU. Remain voters are more in favour of another election – 59% want the chance to vote on parties’ plans for the negotiations, compared with 42% of leave voters. Regardless, though, most people think Britain will leave the EU (61%, only 16% think Britain will stay despite the referendum result), including on balance those from both sides of the argument (80% of leave voters and 49% of remain voters).
Confidence in Britain’s political leadership is not high. Overall, 54% do not think the currently elected Government and MPs do not reflect the views of the British public towards the EU (including 67% of leave voters and 45% of remain voters), and only 30% say they have confidence in Britain’s political leaders to get the best possible terms of exit for Britain from the EU (45% of leave voters, and just 18% of remain voters).
Finally, the public are also split when looking ahead to the negotiations themselves. Two in three (67%) of remain voters say that Britain should allow EU citizens to come and live and work in Britain in return for access to the single market, but 66% of leave voters instead prioritise reducing immigration, and say that Britain should stop EU citizens freedom of movement here even if it means restricted access to the single market.
Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, said:
“Just one week after the EU referendum and despite all that has happened since then, there is little sign of many people on either side changing their mind. Britain remains as split now as it was going into the referendum, with leave voters as optimistic about the result as remain voters are pessimistic, and with the same differences by age, class and education level as in the vote itself.”
Technical note:Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,077 adults aged 18-75 across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted online between 29th – 30th June. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. A further weight was applied to match recalled vote share to the estimated actual balance of opinion of this group in the EU referendum (excluding don’t knows).
The facts may have changed on Brexit - but people’s minds have not
Reflecting the national vote in the 2016 referendum, voters in Bedford split almost the same way, with 51.8% voting to leave the EU. Two years on, we joined the BBC Radio 4 Today programme to ask local Bedford residents what they have to say on the matter now.