The `bedroom tax'; what the public think, and why

 

During the party conference season it was reported that Lord Ashcroft said that Labour was on the wrong side of public opinion when deciding to commit to abolish the ‘bedroom tax’. That seemed an odd thing to say so soon after a widely reported poll found that six in ten British adults favouring its abolition, but a closer look suggests a more nuanced picture.

Our survey for the DWP published on Friday was undertaken in August, before the conference season and Labour’s pledge to abolish the ‘tax’. Dedicated to measuring opinion on the policy by description, not name, it found plurality (not majority), support both in principle (support led opposition by 16 points) and after a more detailed briefing of what it involves (13 points). This is a policy which divides opinion, in contrast with the strong support for the benefit cap. For example, there are as many strong opponents as strong supporters (16% of the public in both cases). Some sections of the population are set against it, some are pro. There is a swing towards support in response to some potential impacts such as reducing benefit spending, a swing against because of others such as those affected having to move to a different area. Most striking is that not only do the public see the fairness in this policy, they see the unfairness too. And while they think efficient use of social housing sector stock to reduce under-occupation and over-crowding is important, they are less sure this policy will actually realise this goal. As always, context is important; most (not all) of the public think that there are some groups who should have their benefits cut, that the system is “too generous” and that it is not working effectively. While the British Social Attitudes Survey found a “softening of attitudes”, the desire to see the benefit bill come down remains the majority view. This offers the greatest hope to proponents of the reform; 54% say they support it if it reduces the amount spent on benefits. Meanwhile opponents will note that support falls to 31% (with 40% opposed) if it means those affected have to move to a different area. Most people, 54%, say they know a fair amount or a great deal about the policy and it has not been short of media attention and controversy. But other surveys show public knowledge of benefits and welfare reforms to be fairly shallow and, as the Fabian Society’s recent study concluded, “politicians and campaigners must understand that facts in and of themselves will not change hearts and minds, but stories and emotions do”. Given the stories and emotions so far, one reading of this is that the policy has proved to be relatively robust so far, but the NHF/ComRes poll underlines the strong power of the “bedroom tax” label. Overall, this is a less straightforward policy particularly by comparison to the benefit cap (which polls well and seems to have a basic, intuitive appeal), with the result that public opinion is more nuanced and probably less predictable. Perhaps Lord Ashcroft wasn't wrong in his assertion, but neither was he correct.