Britons' predictions for 2016
Expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year, according to an Ipsos poll of just over 1,000 British adults.
The study, which asked Britons their predictions for 2016, finds 74% think a major terrorist incident in the UK is likely, an increase of 25 percentage points compared to last year. In addition, nearly three in five (58%) think it likely that ground troops will be deployed in Syria during the next 12 months, suggesting that many people think the UK’s involvement in military intervention in Syria will escalate from the recently agreed airstrikes.
Despite a turbulent start at the head of the Labour party, most Britons don’t think Jeremy Corbyn will be ousted or step down during the next year – 53% think he will still be leader by the end of 2016, with 41% saying this is unlikely.
With regards to the upcoming London Mayoral election – more people think it is likely that the Conservative candidate Zac Goldsmith will be handed the keys to City Hall (47% think this is likely) in May, ahead of Labour’s Sadiq Khan (34%). However, with the campaigns only just starting in both cases a significant number of people do not know either way (especially outside of London).
Even as David Cameron’s discussions with EU leaders continue to dominate headlines, Britons are not convinced there will be a resolution to the question of the UK's relationship with the EU any time soon. Only 39% think there will be an in/out referendum in 2016.
In US politics we’re very sceptical that Donald Trump will make it all the way to the White House – 77% think it’s unlikely (about as unlikely as finding life on Mars, on 80%). However Ipsos polling in the US puts him as the Republican party’s front-runner (although just behind Hilary Clinton in a head-to-head), and there is a way to go yet before we know who the 45th occupier of the Oval Office will be.
When thinking about the economy, 36% think unemployment will rise, up from 30% last year (34% expect it to stay the same). A majority (52%) think inflation will rise in the coming year, and 40% think the pound will maintain its value in relation to the Euro, with 30% predicting the pound will get stronger.
The picture when it comes to people’s own standard of living is one of little significant improvement, much as it was last year. A majority (58%) expect their living standard will stay the same, with only 22% expecting it to get better (20% think it will get worse). Related, perhaps, are strong inclinations to think that mortgage base rates are set to increase, with 60% expecting this (a slight increase over the last couple of years).
A significant majority of people (70%) expect that the number of immigrants coming to the UK will increase, a rise of more than 20 percentage points on the same time last year. Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:
“With the horrific events in Paris fresh in people’s minds, expectations of a terrorist attack on British soil have risen sharply, with three in four of us fearing the worst for next year. On the political front, Jeremy Corbyn has been dividing opinion more than most new leaders, and while most think he will still be at the helm of his party by the end of 2016, four in ten are pessimistic about his chances.
“The economy and immigration are also going to be key for British politics in 2016. As we have seen for the last few years, Britons are fairly unenthusiastic about the prospects for their standard of living – only around one in five believe they will actually rise, one in five think they will fall, and most assume they will stay the same. Meanwhile concern for immigration rose to historic levels in our research over the course of 2015, and expectations show no sign of slowing – indeed seven in ten think it likely that immigration will rise again in 2016. "Looking at our sporting chances, people tend to doubt that Team GB will be able to outdo its 2012 medal tally in Rio, and few think England will get through to the finals of Euro 2016. The former may be informed by a feeling that nothing can match the glory of London 2012, but views on England’s chances in France are likely to be simply a result of bitter experience.”
In other findings, optimism about Prince Harry’s love life has diminished slightly since 2013, with a third (35%) predicting the fifth in line to the throne will get engaged. For Directioners the picture is similarly bleak, only 19% think One Direction will reform in 2016, having announced they will be splitting in September.
Looking at the nation’s sporting chances for the year ahead, people tend to think Team GB will fail to outdo its London 2012 Olympics medal tally in Rio in 2016; just 39% say this is likely. Fewer still (17%) think England will get through to the finals of Euro 2016.
2016 Predictions Poll from Ipsos
Technical details
- Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,040 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between 12 and 14 December 2015. Data is weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories, or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Data are based on all adults unless otherwise stated.
