Business Leaders Views On Euro Constitution

While the general election is the more immediate political event on the horizon, generally expected to take place on 5th May to coincide with the local government elections, the debate on the Euro Constitution referendum in 2006 is already in play.

By six to four, British Captains of Industry are as of now opposed to Britain's signing up to the Euro constitution, an even stronger opposition than currently found among the general public. Over half (55%) of the public now oppose Britain adopting the proposed constitution.

These are not however projections of what might happen in two year's time, after the general election. For when allowed to chose between four options gauging strength of opinion, it is interesting that nearly half the public (49%) and two thirds (69%) of Captains say either that they generally are in favour, or generally oppose, signing up to the proposed European constitution, but could be persuaded to vote the other way if they thought it was in Britain's interest. Therefore, the outcome depends on the ability of the proponents and opponents of Britain's adopting the European constitution to make their case.

The MORI annual Captains of Industry study, conducted in the Autumn among 103 major company chairmen, CEOs and CFOs, found 53% of Captains now in favour of dropping the pound sterling for the Euro while 47% are opposed. Only one in 10 (11%) say they 'strongly support' British participation in the single currency, and another four in 10 (42%) say that while they are generally in favour, they could be persuaded against it if they thought it would be bad for Britain's economy.

This compares to overwhelming opposition among the general public, as I reported in the Observer in November. In MORI's national poll at the beginning of November for Citigroup, nearly three adults in four (72%) said they would vote against Britain joining up to the Euro if a referendum were to take place. It is not thought likely that the referendum on Britain joining the Euro currency will take place until after the referendum on the constitution.

Captains of industry are bullish about prospects for their own companies, over six in 10 (62%) say they expect business for their own company to improve over the next 12 months. Yet when asked about their thoughts about prospects for Britain plc, there are more, 27%, who think it will get worse over the next 12 months than the 18% who think the general economic condition of the country will improve, giving a -9 Captain's EOI.

This is a somewhat more positive view than held by the British public in December's MORI Economic Optimism Index which found only 13% of the public thinking that the general economic condition of the country will improve, while more than a third, 35%, think it will get worse, and the Christmas shopping spend reflected the public's anxiety about the year ahead.