Confidence in UK housing market slips to lowest level in five years

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker (HMCT) shows a steep decrease in the House Price Outlook (HPO), down from from +44 in March 2016 to +30 in October 2017. This means the HPO figure has more than halved since its peak in May 2015 when it was +68.

This figure is driven by an eight-point decrease in expectations that average UK property prices will be higher in twelve months’ time (down from 58% in October 2016) and a corresponding six-point increase in expectations that average UK prices will be lower in a years’ time (up from 14%).

Buying sentiment* has increased by one point since March 2017, when it was at +14. The buying sentiment is thus still on a very low level, with the highest seen in February 2015 (35%). The selling** sentiment is showing a 11-point decrease since March 2017, now being at its lowest levels since September 2013 when it was at - 6.

The survey was the 28th undertaken by Ipsos for Halifax since its inception in April 2011. Over that time the House Price Outlook has been positive on all but one occasion. And while buying sentiment has changed comparatively little, selling sentiment has risen as confidence in property price rises has grown. Since April 2011, the average UK house price has risen from £160,785 (April 2011) to £222,293 (August 2017) according to Halifax.

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Technical note

Ipsos interviewed 1,968 British adults, including 535 mortgage holders, aged 16+ face-to-face, between 22nd September and 1st October 2017. Data have been weighted to the known population profile.

* Buying sentiment - the figure of those who indicate ‘good time to buy a property’ minus those who indicate ‘bad time to buy a property’

** Selling sentiment - the figure of those who indicate ‘good time to sell a property’ minus those who indicate ‘bad time to sell a property’