Conservatives seen as main opposition to Labour for first time this parliament

• 35% now see Conservatives as main opposition, 32% Reform UK.
• Reform had led by 10 points in August and 28 points in May.
• 2024 Labour voters much more likely to see the Conservatives as Labour’s main rival today too.
• But public think it is more likely than unlikely that Andy Burnham will win the next General Election. Public sense that Labour more likely to win has grown this month.

New polling data from Ipsos in the UK, conducted 9-13 October 2026 shows that the public are now more likely to say the Conservatives are the main opposition to Labour than Reform UK for the first time this parliament. However, the public are also more likely to think Labour will win the next General Election than before party conference season and more say it is likely than unlikely that Andy Burnham will win the next election too.

Who is the main opposition?

This parliament Ipsos has regularly asked the public who they consider to be the main opposition to the Labour government. This month is the first time the Conservatives have led Reform UK on this measure. 35% say the Conservatives are the main opposition and 32% say Reform UK. Reform UK led by 10 points in August and 28 points in May.

Labour voters from 2024 now see Conservatives as the main opposition (42%) rather than Reform UK (29%). In August, 2024 Labour voters were split with 34% seeing each as the main opposition. In May, 49% of 2024 Labour voters thought Reform UK were the main opposition and 25% said the Conservatives.

Who will win the next election / be Prime Minister?

However, despite improved Conservative fortunes on the above measure, the public are more likely to see Labour winning the next election following party conference season. 

• When asked what the outcome of the next General Election will be 4 in 10 think it will either be a Labour majority 19%, or a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party (21%). This combined score of 40% is up from 33% in September.

• Furthermore, a greater proportion of the public think it is likely – rather than unlikely – that Andy Burnham will win the next General Election (44% likely, 33% unlikely).

• Related, Ipsos regularly ask how likely opposition leaders are to ever be Prime Minister. 79% think it is unlikely that Zack Polanski will ever be Prime Minister and 78% say the same about Ed Davey.
• Meanwhile, the public are also more likely to say it is unlikely that either Nigel Farage or Kemi Badenoch will ever be Prime Minister than to say it is likely. For example, 33% think it is likely Nigel Farage will become PM (52% unlikely) and 32% think it is likely that Kemi Badenoch will be PM (50% unlikely).
• The public seeing equal likelihood in Badenoch and Farage being PM has been the case for a number of months now. But it is markedly different to May this year where 50% thought it was likely Farage would be PM and 6 in 10 (60%) thought it was unlikely that Badenoch would be.

Commenting on the findings, Keiran Pedley, UK Director of Politics at Ipsos, said:

These findings reflect a political environment that continues to be in flux following Andy Burnham’s arrival as Prime Minister and recent struggles for Reform UK. The Burnham bounce looks real – with the public more likely to see Labour as being at least the largest party after the next General Election compared to a month ago. Meanwhile, in the battle for hearts and minds on the right, the Conservatives continue to make progress. Time will tell if this leads to a decisive shift in voter preferences in their direction or if this is merely a low ebb for Reform UK that they recover from.

Notes to Editors:

• For media queries, please contact the Ipsos in the UK Press Office at [email protected] 
• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 2,257 online British adults aged 18+. Polling was conducted online between 9-13 October 2026. 
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.