Did September 11 Change The World Forever?

The last week has been a time for reflection - to look back at the climactic events of 12 months ago, and what has happened since. The focus of course has been on America, on the families affected, on New York, and on George W Bush and his administration. From their vantage point this side of the Atlantic, what are the perceptions of the British public, and how have they reacted to the events of the past year?

The first point to note is that people are in no doubt about the long term impact of September 11. A month or so after the attacks, we found 77% agreeing that the attacks had changed the world forever. This feeling remains one year on. Our polling last week showed the same proportion - 77% - regarding the fall of the Twin Towers as a world-changing event.

From the outset, however, the public tended not to think that the events would have a radical impact on their own lives. And, at the advent of this first anniversary, this is still the case. MORI's latest figures show 26% agreeing that 9/11 will change their lives forever, while three times as many (72%) disagree. For a brief period, this was the issue facing Britain in the eyes of the public. Our September (20-25) 2001 poll for the Times found foreign affairs and defence being highlighted spontaneously by 60% of our respondents as one of the most important issues facing Britain. In October it remained at 57%, before falling back to 40% in November. By June of this year, the figure had reduced still further to 13% - above the 2-5% we tend to observe during peacetime, but very much less prominent on the radar screen. In contrast, health was mentioned by 54% in June, crime by 31% and education by 29%. Our next MORI Political Monitor will be released later this month, and will give us a post-anniversary update, and an indication of the extent to which the debates over Iraq have impacted on the public consciousness.

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each.

Q September 11th has changed the world forever

Q September 11th will change my life forever

Some might describe this return to relative normality as testament to the successful response of America and its allies, particularly in Afghanistan. However, closer reading of the evidence - particularly the MORI poll for the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations (CCFR) and the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) - suggests this may be a little wide of the mark.

In fact, Europeans have few qualms about criticising certain aspects of US foreign policy. In Britain, less than a third (30%) view the Bush administration's overall handling of foreign policy as "excellent" or "good", while two-thirds (66%) say it is "fair" or "poor". Ratings on how the US is dealing with international terrorism are a little more positive (48% describe give it an "excellent" or "good" rating). However, when it comes to Iraq, we find this measure falling to 18%, with 77% describing its handling as "fair" or "poor". This pattern is reflected in the other countries surveyed, with the French - in line with their Government - being particularly critical.

So it is clear President Bush and Tony Blair have work to do if they are to win over the support not just of other European leaders, but of the public as well. Last week-end's MORI figures show that - for the first time since September 11th - more people in the UK now say they disapprove than approve of the way Tony Blair and George W. Bush are handling their nations' responses to the 9/11 attacks.

This is vastly different from the overwhelming support both leaders gained in the immediate aftermath. In the days after 9/11, when asked "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Blair is handling the British response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?", four in five (83%) said they approved and one in 10 (nine percent) said they did not.

By March, the proportion approving had fallen to half (52%) in March and this week's figures shows this declining to just over a third (36%) with half (51%) now saying they disapprove. The figures for George W Bush are almost identical.

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Blair is handling the British response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the American response to the terrorist attacks on 11th September?

Labour's own supporters are divided: fewer than half (46%) now say they approve of Blair's handling of the situation, while a similar percentage (44%) say they disapprove. Judging from media reports, this is not too dissimilar to the picture among Government MPs.

As we write, observers are digesting the implications of George Bush's speech to the United Nations. What would the public make of this? It is worth looking again at the research MORI carried out for CCFR and GMF. In Britain, the prevailing view, shared by 69% of the public, is that the US should only get involved in an attack on Iraq if it has UN support. One in five (20%) rule out any invasion of Iraq, while just 10% support an invasion by the US even if they have to do it alone. A similar pattern is again evident in other European countries. From this side of the Atlantic, then, the mood is one of caution. People do not rule out the prospect of war, but they will need some persuading that this is the right path to take.