Does the public back devolution?

Mrs May is careful. An ambitious Treasury has been reined in for now, and George Osborne and his hi-vis jackets sent packing. News that she may or may not (no pun intended) support mayors in more rural parts of Britain was greeted with anxiety among their supporters.

The public know little about any devolution plans that authorities all over England are currently considering. About the same number as actually work in local government in Britain claim to know “a great deal” about them (under 5%), yet the vast majority say they support more local decision making in most areas of public policy except perhaps welfare systems.

We will quickly pass over the fact that they mostly also want standards for public services to be the same everywhere, and look at the most contentious elements – the elected mayors that were a condition for more local control.

Far more people in Britain think having an elected mayor in London has been positive than negative (45% vs 9%), and when it comes to areas like East Anglia, Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, a majority of the thousands of people Ipsos has interviewed in each of the areas under consideration express support at levels higher than was necessary to win the EU referendum (52 -57%).

People aren’t crazy about rural mayors, but support outweighs opposition among the public at large, particularly with the types of checks and balances in decision-making and scrutiny arrangements that are envisaged. No one must be under any illusion that non-readers of MJ and the like find local government structure fascinating, and very low turnouts in PCC elections offer a warning.

Yet overall the public wants more devolution and is willing to see new local governance arrangements: success or failure will depend on how effectively authorities collaborate and the behaviour of new mayors (and Mrs May’s views). As ever culture eats strategy for breakfast – in this case local political cultures will determine success or failure.