Economic optimism plummets among Scots as consumer confidence stalls
Following our poll last week which, showed a third of Scots cutting back on Christmas spending, our latest economic data paints a broader picture of widespread pessimism in the economy and a crisis of confidence among Scottish consumers.
Following our poll last week which, showed a third of Scots cutting back on Christmas spending, our latest economic data paints a broader picture of widespread pessimism in the economy and a crisis of confidence among Scottish consumers.
Public confidence among Scots in both the Scottish and UK economies has fallen considerably over the last eight months. The first half of 2011 saw some tentative signs that optimism was improving, though this often occurs in the lead-up to major elections. However, even accounting for that pre-election rise in optimism, the plummeting since April is significant.
Three in five Scots (59%) believe that the condition of the Scottish economy will worsen in the next 12 months while fewer than one in five (16%) think it will improve, a net optimism of -43%, a decline of 28 points since April 2011. Confidence in the UK economy has fallen even further in our latest survey. Around three quarters (73%) think the condition of the UK economy will worsen in the coming year, while over fewer than one in ten (8%) think it will improve. This gives a net optimism of -65%, a fall of 50 points from April 2011. Indeed, this is the lowest score we have recorded since our polling began in August 2009.
Decreased public confidence in economic prospects is compounded by data from our current survey which reveals that Scots are not intending to significantly increase spending on a range of big-ticket items.
Since November 2010, there has been no significant movement in intention to purchase a new or replacement car or move home over the last year. However, there has been a small increase in the proportion of people who are planning to take a foreign holiday over the next 12 months, potentially providing a timely boost to beleaguered tour operators.
Our most recent data indicates 14% of the public intending to move in the next year, the same as this time last year. Among owner occupiers, 11% say they intend to move while the figure rises to 32% among those who rent their property from a private landlord, a more mobile group.
Intentions to buy a new or replacement car are also broadly in line with our November 2010 findings. Around one in eight of the public (12%) intend to buy a new or replacement car in the coming year, compared to 14% this time last year.
Meanwhile, just over half of Scots (53%) intend to take a holiday abroad in the next year. This compares to 45% reporting the same activity in November 2010.
Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos Scotland said:
“Our latest data reveals unprecedented doom and gloom among Scots about the short-term prospects of the economy. Given the regular negative economic indicators and the on-going European crisis, it is perhaps understandable that optimism is at a premium. However with the pessimism so high and confidence so low, it would appear that a consumer-led recovery is not likely in the near future.”Download the Scottish Economic Summary here (PDF) Technical Note • Results are based on a survey of 1,001 respondents conducted by telephone between 1st December and 4th December 2011. • Data are weighted by age, sex and working status using census data, and tenure using SHS 2007-2008 data, and by public-private sector employment by Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Series data. • An asterisk (*) indicates a percentage of less than 0.5% but greater than 0. • Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to multiple responses or computer rounding. Where the base size is less than 30 the number (N) rather than the percentage of respondents is given.
