Expected general election outcome 1979-2005
Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming election?
See also - actual general election results
1979
Q Which party do you think will win the next General Election?
| 29 March 1979 | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| Conservative | 65 |
| Labour | 24 |
| Liberal | 1 |
| Other | * |
| Don't know | 15 |
Base: 1,075 GB adults aged 18+
Q Do you think that one political party will achieve an overall majority in the General Election or do you think there is likely to be a stalemate?
| 17 April 1979 | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| Overall majority | 46 |
| Stalemate | 42 |
| Don't know | 12 |
Base: 1,032 GB adults aged 18+
Q which party do you think will win the largest number of seats at the General Election?
| 17 April 1979 | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| Conservatives | 59 |
| Labour | 26 |
| Other/don't know | 15 |
Base: 1,032 GB adults aged 18+
1983
Q From this card, what do you think is the most likely result of the General Election?
| Nov 1981 | Sept 1982 | May 1983 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| % | % | % | |
| An overall Conservative majority | 11 | 49 | 66 |
| An overall Labour majority | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| An overall Alliance majority | 37 | 4 | 1 |
| No party with an overall majority | 21 | 22 | 14 |
| Don't know | 15 | 7 | 8 |
Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+
1992
Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?
| 11-12 March 1992 | 16 March 1992 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| An overall majority of Conservative MPs | 30 | 28 |
| An overall majority of Labour MPs | 17 | 19 |
| No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party | 20 | 18 |
| No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party | 19 | 20 |
| Other | 2 | 3 |
| Don't know | 12 | 12 |
Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+
1997
Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?
| 20-25 August 1996 | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| An overall majority of Conservative MPs | 18 |
| An overall majority of Labour MPs | 46 |
| No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Conservative Party | 8 |
| No overall majority and the Liberal Democrats sharing power with the Labour Party | 11 |
| Other | 1 |
| Don't know | 15 |
Base: 892 GB adults aged 18+
Q From this card, what do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming general election?
| 21-24 March 1997 | 30 April 1997 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| A large majority for Labour (Labour majority of more than 100 MPs) | 16 | 17 |
| A medium-sized majority for Labour (Labour majority of 51-100 MPs) | 29 | 31 |
| A small majority for Labour (Labour majority of up to 50 MPs) | 26 | 24 |
| No overall majority for either party | 8 | 18 |
| A small majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of up to 50 MPs) | 9 | 5 |
| A medium-sized majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of 51-100 MPs) | 3 | 1 |
| A large majority for the Conservatives (Conservative majority of more than 100 MPs) | 1 | * |
| Don’t know | 8 | 4 |
Base: c. 1,500 - 2,000 GB adults aged 18+
2001
Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?
| 4-6 Jan 2001 | 10-12 May 2001 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| Conservative victory | 13 | 5 |
| Labour victory | 60 | 78 |
| No overall majority/hung Parliament | 5 | 2 |
| Lib Dem victory | 1 | * |
| Other | * | * |
| Don’t know | 20 | 14 |
Base: 1,021 GB adults aged 18+
2005
Q What do you think will be the outcome of the forthcoming General Election?
| 28-29 April 2005 | |
|---|---|
| % | |
| Conservative overall majority of more than 100 seats | 2 |
| Conservative overall majority under 100 seats | 3 |
| Conservatives being the biggest party but having no overall majority | 3 |
| Labour being the biggest party but having no overall majority | 14 |
| Labour overall majority of under 100 seats | 40 |
| Labour overall majority of more than 100 seats | 22 |
| Liberal Democrat victory | 1 |
| Other | 1 |
| Don't know | 14 |
Base: 1,007 GB adults aged 18+
2010/2015
Q As you probably know, the general election may result in a clear majority for one party that can make decisions without consulting, or it may result in a Hung Parliament where no party has an overall majority so parties must compromise and reach agreement to make decisions.
Thinking ahead to the next general election, which of the following outcomes do you think is most likely?
| March 2010 | April 2015 | |
|---|---|---|
| % | % | |
| A Conservative majority government | 24 | 11 |
| A Labour majority government | 10 | 6 |
| A hung parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party | 37 | 45 |
| A hung parliament with Labour as the largest party | 22 | 25 |
| A Liberal Democrat majoirty | * | * |
| A hung parliament with the Liberal Democrats as the biggest party | * | 1 |
| Other | * | 3 |
| Don’t know | 6 | 8 |
| Hung parliament | 59 | 70 |
| Conservative largest party | 61 | 56 |
| Labour largest party | 32 | 31 |
Base: c. 1,000 GB adults aged 18+
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