Exploring voter volatility ahead of the July General Election

Beneath the surface of the latest political polls, a new Ipsos survey on the Ipsos online random probability UK KnowledgePanel reveals a notable degree of voter volatility. The survey, which tracked the voting intentions of the same group of over 15,000 British adults between January and June, found that while the overall percentage of the population who planned to vote for most parties remained relatively stable, underneath the surface 30% of the total voting age population had changed their vote intentions in some way by June, including those who became more or less undecided or more or less certain to vote.

Some of the main findings from the survey show:

• Most party supporters from January continue to be loyal to their party, although this is slightly higher for Labour and Reform UK supporters than those who supported the Conservatives or Liberal Democrats.
• Conservative switchers since January break into four roughly equal groups: those who are now supporting Reform UK, those who have switched to Labour or the Liberal Democrats (mainly to Labour), those who are now undecided but likely to vote, and those are now less certain or unlikely to vote (regardless of their party preference).
• One in six (17%) of those currently intending to vote for Reform UK are former Conservative voters, driven by dissatisfaction with the government and the Prime Minister (although they are not favourable towards Keir Starmer either), and concerns about the economy, asylum, and immigration.
• Just under half of those who are switching between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (in either direction) say they are doing so for tactical reasons.
• Most of those who were uncertain or unlikely to vote in January have not moved out of this group.  Of those who have become more motivated to vote for a party, more have moved to Labour (9% of those who were unlikely to vote in January), followed by moving to the Conservatives (5%), Reform UK (3%) and the Liberal Democrats (2%). Those of this group who moved to Labour expressed satisfaction with Keir Starmer's leadership and are slightly more likely to mention housing.  Those who moved to the Conservatives were more content with the government's performance and optimistic about the economy.
• A small number (4%) of Labour voters in January have now switched to the Green Party, citing dissatisfaction with Starmer's leadership and prioritising environmental and energy policies as well as policy on Israel/Palestine.

How the parties have changed since January

A closer examination of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel study reveals that while a majority of those who initially favoured the Conservative party remained committed, a notable percentage shifted their support elsewhere, or just became less certain to vote. Specifically, 68% of those who intended to vote Conservative in January maintained their stance, while 8% now lean towards Reform UK, 6% towards Labour, and 2% towards the Liberal Democrats. Additionally, 7% became undecided but still likely to vote, and 9% indicated they were less than certain or unlikely to vote (even if they did have a soft party preference).

The Conservatives aren’t the only party to see changes within their support. While a strong majority of Labour supporters from January still intend to vote for the party, the Ipsos KnowledgePanel study found some movement to other parties or to becoming less committed. Three in four (76%) of those who said they'd vote Labour in January remain supportive, however, 4% now say they'd vote for the Liberal Democrats, another 4% for the Greens, and 2% for Reform UK. Additionally, 3% are now undecided, and 9% have become less likely to vote.

Amongst Liberal Democrat voters from January 59% remained supportive, however, 16% now favour Labour, and 4% each for the Greens, Conservatives, and Reform UK. An additional 4% are undecided, and 8% are less certain to vote.

The study also revealed a shift in voting intentions among those who were undecided but still likely to vote or uncertain or unlikely to vote in January, even if they had a soft party preference (of these two groups, the uncertain or unlikely to votes are much larger than the undecideds). A third (33%) who were undecided in January remain undecided, 15% now favour Labour, and the Conservative and Reform UK parties each garner 12% of their support. The Liberal Democrats picked up 5% support from this group, and 18% are now uncertain or unlikely to vote. Few who were uncertain or unlikely to vote in January have become more motivated to now turn up to the polling station with three in four (75%) still uncertain to vote. One in eleven (9%) however now say they’ll turnout to vote for Labour, while 5% would now vote Conservative and 3% for Reform UK. Some who selected a party in January but were uncertain to vote have become more motivated to vote for their party of choice. For example, 28% of those who said they’d vote Labour before but not certain to turnout now say they’ll vote Labour and will more likely turnout, as do 23% who said the same for the Conservatives, and 15% for the Liberal Democrats.

Although most parties are seeing stable voting intentions overall, Reform UK has nearly doubled its overall support among the population as a whole since January, drawing voters primarily from those who previously voted Conservative (with 17% of their current support coming from former Conservative voters) and those who were undecided or uncertain to vote (with 29% of their support coming from those who were previously undecided or uncertain/unlikely to vote). However, their voter base does also show some flows in the other direction, as while 80% of those who supported Reform UK in January remain committed, 8% now intend to vote Conservative, and another 8% are now uncertain to vote.

Who are the switchers – and why?

When looking closer at those who switched parties between January and June the data reveals clear differences in opinion (while the demographic profile of switchers broadly reflects the overall profile of the base support of the party they are moving to – for example, Conservative to Reform UK switchers tend to be older and male, Labour-Green switchers tend to be younger). When it comes to interest in politics, switchers on the whole are slightly less likely to pay attention to politics than voters who do not switch, although they are more engaged with politics than non-voters. When asked how much attention you pay to politics using a 10 point scale (where 0 is you pay no attention and 10 you pay a great deal of attention) 21% of those who switched their voting preference paid a great deal of attention to politics (a score of 9-10) compared with 27% of voters who did not switch from their party. However, 38% of those who switched from Conservative to Reform UK said they paid a great deal of attention to politics. This compares with 21% of those who stuck with the Conservative party between the two waves. Undecided voters who have moved to Labour are also slightly more interested in politics, with just over a third (35%) of those who moved from being undecided in January to voting Labour in June also paying a great deal of attention to politics (compared with 28% among Labour loyalists). Those uncertain to vote in both waves were by far most likely to pay no attention (a score of 0-1) with 17% compared to 1% of both switchers and those staying with their party of choice.

The survey allows some insight into exploring the issues and reasons people may have switched their vote preference. Among those who switched their vote choice from Conservative to Reform UK eight in ten (80%) are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country and 81% are dissatisfied with the way Rishi Sunak is doing his job as Prime Minister. This compares with 30% of those who stuck with the Conservatives who are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country and 26% who are dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak. Conservatives who switched to Reform UK are also more likely to believe the economic condition of the country will get worse over the next 12 months when compared with those loyal to the Conservative party (37% vs. 12%).

Reform UK has also picked up a small number of those who were uncertain to vote in January (3%, which makes up 21% of Reform UK’s current support). Amongst this group 96% are dissatisfied with the government (compared with 77% still uncertain to vote) and 89% dissatisfied with Rishi Sunak (compared with 74% who are still uncertain to vote). Most of this group does not seem to see Keir Starmer as an alternative, with 84% dissatisfied with him doing his job as Labour leader compared with 58% who are still uncertain to vote. Asylum and refugees is the biggest issue for this group (mentioned by 80%) as was immigration in general (mentioned by 65%).

Issue preferences also differ between those who stayed with the Conservatives to those who switched to Reform UK. While managing the economy is more important to those sticking with the Conservative party (62% mentioned this compared to 48% among Conservative to Reform UK switchers), asylum and immigration are much more important to those who switched to Reform UK. Three quarters (77%) of those who switched from Conservative to Reform UK mentioned asylum being a voting issue (compared with 45% of those who stuck with the Conservatives) and 56% said immigration in general (compared with 32%). Crime/anti-social behaviour was also an issue mentioned by 56% of Reform UK switchers (43% of those staying with the Conservatives), as was overseas aid (34% vs. 12%).

When looking at switchers between Labour and the Liberal Democrats (or vice versa) the picture is different. Those who switched between these parties are just as dissatisfied with the government or Sunak than those who stuck with the parties. More than nine in ten who switched from Labour to the Liberal Democrats, or switched from the Liberal Democrats to Labour are dissatisfied with the government and Sunak. Keir Starmer’s satisfaction rating might be playing more of a role where 60% of those switching to Labour are satisfied with him as LOTO compared with 41% of those staying with the Liberal Democrats.

There are relatively few issue preferences that separate those switching between Labour and the Liberal Democrats with the most notable being housing mentioned by 41% Liberal Democrat switchers to Labour compared with 27% of those staying with the Liberal Democrats.

Tactical voting might have some explanation as to why individuals switched between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. When asked why respondents would vote for the candidate they selected, 44% of those who switched from Labour to the Liberal Democrats said the party they support has little chance of winning in their constituency, so they are voting for this party to try to keep another party out (50% said they are the candidate that best represents their views). This compares with 16% tactical voting among all voters while 74% they are voting for the party that best represents their views. Similarly, 51% of those switching from the Liberal Democrats to Labour said they’re voting this way to also keep another party out (38% said it’s because it’s the party that best represents their views). In contrast, 88% of those that switched from the Conservatives to Reform UK say they are voting for the candidate that best represents their views (7% say it’s to keep another party out).

Labour has also turned some of those uncertain or unlikely to vote in January into more motivated supporters for them (9% of uncertain/unlikely voters in January, representing 14% of Labour’s current support). Nine in ten (91%) of this group are dissatisfied with the government and 90% are dissatisfied with Sunak. Two-thirds (65%), meanwhile, are satisfied with Keir Starmer doing his job as Labour leader. Housing policy is a slightly more important for this group than others (40% vs. 30% overall).

The study also reveals a small number of voters moving from Labour to the Green Party (4% of Labour supporters from January, representing 25% of current support for the Greens). This group are unhappy with Labour leader Keir Starmer with 83% saying they were dissatisfied with how he was doing his job. Protecting the natural environment was an important issue for this group in helping decide who’d they vote for (72% mentioned this compared with 40% who stayed with Labour) as was energy policy (50% vs. 34%) and policy regarding Israel/Palestine (39% vs. 16%).

Although the numbers don’t look very welcoming for the Prime Minister and the Conservative party, there are some positives in the data with the Conservatives picking up 5% of votes from those who were uncertain or unlikely to vote in January (representing 15% of the current Conservative support). Among this group most (57%) are satisfied with the way the government is doing its job and 67% are satisfied with Sunak. They’re also generally more optimistic about the economy with 42% saying it will get better (compared with 24% overall). Taxation is a key issue for them with 55% mentioning this (compared with 34% overall) as is asylum (44% compared with 30%) but not nearly as high as those who switched to Reform UK.  

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, says:

This analysis goes to show that even when the topline fundamentals in public opinion over the last 6 months haven’t changed very much, there are more interesting dynamics going on underneath the surface. While – with the exception of Reform – no party particularly stands out as a net beneficiary, all are both losing and gaining voters to and from other parties, undecideds, and those just not as likely to vote.  The data also helps us understand what is driving these patterns – for example, the importance to Conservative to Reform switchers of dissatisfaction with the government and PM, especially over asylum and immigration, and the tactical voting considerations that Labour/Liberal Democrat switchers are taking into account.

Technical Note

• This study was conducted on the Ipsos KnowledgePanel between 25 – 31 January 2024 and 29 May – 5 June 2024. In total 15,986 interviews were achieved with residents across Great Britain aged 18+ that participated in both waves. 
• The Ipsos UK KnowledgePanel is a random probability survey panel. Panellists are recruited via a random probability unclustered address-based sampling method. This means that every household in the UK has a known chance of being selected to join the panel. Letters are sent to selected addresses in the UK (using the Postcode Address File) inviting them to become members of the panel. Members of the public who are digitally excluded are able to register to the KnowledgePanel either by post or by telephone, and are given a tablet, an email address, and basic internet which allows them to complete surveys online.
• Design weights were applied to correct for unequal probabilities of selection of household members, as well as oversamples in devolved nations. Data was then weighted to the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
• This survey tracks changes in individual voting intentions over time. It is a longitudinal study designed to understand the reasons behind shifts in voter preference. This means the data should not be interpreted as a standalone snapshot of current vote intentions like a traditional opinion poll.