General Election 2001 - Election Digest

Election Commentary - North Of The Border

As the first post-devolution election, it will be fascinating to see how, if at all, the existence of the Scottish Parliament affects voting patterns, turnout, and the concerns which Scottish voters raise with their candidates

Scottish Labour Support Below That In England Londoners, Transport, And Ken Party Support, Attitudes To Taxation, Leader Image And Turnout Young Abstainers A Holiday From The Election The Barnett Formula

Scottish Labour Support Below That In England

The latest ICM/Scotsman survey shows the Labour Party with a clear lead in Scotland, on 44%, with the SNP on 25%, the Tories on 16% and the Liberal Democrats on 12%. The Scotsman reports that these vote shares would imply that Labour will hold all its seats in Scotland; however, comparing the survey with those recently published covering all Great Britain, the findings also point towards a lower share of votes for Labour in Scotland than England for the first time since 1974.

Scottish voters are shown as opposing joining the single European currency by a margin of almost two to one (58% versus 29%), and a quarter favour independence from the United Kingdom.

Four in ten Scots believe environmental issues are of enough importance to influence which party they vote for, and 31% believe the state of the countryside is vitally important. Fuel costs also emerge as a vote affecting issue, with 34% stating that it will influence their party choice.

More Scottish voters believe that Westminster has greater influence than Holyrood over the quality of health and education provision in Scotland (38% versus 27%). The reverse is true when asked which institution is more relevant in dealing with issues affecting them; 32% choose Holyrood, and 21% opt for Westminster, A majority however, 42%, think both institutions equally relevant.

Source: The Scotsman 15 May 2001. Technical details: ICM interviewed 1,000 residents in Scotland aged 18+, by telephone on 12-13 May 2001.

Londoners, Transport, And Ken

Londoners appear to have sided with Ken Livingstone over the issue of dealing with London Underground, according to an ICM/Evening Standard survey. 57% stated that they support, and 22% said they oppose, the Mayor's decision to go to court to attempt to block the Government's plan of running the tube under the proposed PPP (public-private partnership). Similarly, when asked to rate how the three main players have handled events surrounding the future of the London Underground, 51% thought Ken Livingstone had handled them well, compared to the 20% and 26% who did so for John Prescott and Gordon Brown respectively.

However, the survey shows that public transport is unlikely to affect voter's party choice. Repeating a question posed by MORI in the run up to the 1997 election, only 8% thought the issue "very important in helping you decide which party to vote for", compared to 11% recorded by MORI in 1997. Additionally, more respondents lay blame on the Tories rather than Labour for the current state of public transport in their area.

Source: The Evening Standard 15 May 2001. Technical details: ICM interviewed 1,437 voters throughout Britain by telephone, including 507 in London, on 11-13 May 2001.

Party Support, Attitudes To Taxation, Leader Image And Turnout

A recent Rasmussen Research poll for the Independent puts Labour party support at 46%, the Conservatives on 32% and the Liberal Democrats on 13%.

42% said they favoured a status quo on tax and spend policies; 34% favour a cut in taxes and reduction of spending, whilst 21% want to see higher taxes and increased public spending.

The Rasmussen poll uses a computer rather than interviewers to read out the questions, and responses are recorded using the key pad on respondents' telephones. The methodology, which was developed in the USA, has not previously used in a British political poll.

Source: The Independent 15 May 2001. Technical details: Rasmussen Research interviewed 1,030 eligible voters on 12-13 May 2001, using computer-automated telephone interviews. Data has been weighted to be representative of the adult population.

Young Abstainers

A survey by the University of Essex Department of Government finds that nearly two in three under 25 year olds will not vote in the General Election, the Daily Star reports.

Source: The Daily Star, 15 May 2001. Technical details: not reported

A Holiday From The Election

An estimated 800,000 voters will be away on holiday during the General Election, and 58% of these will not bother to vote via the post, according to a Thomas Cook survey. 41% of respondents said that Tony Blair made them want to leave the country, compared to 37% who said this about William Hague.

Source: The Herald, 14 May 2001. Technical details: 2,000 holidaymakers interviewed. No other details given.

The Barnett Formula

By two-to-one the public opposes continuation of the Barnett formula arrangements whereby funding of public spending in Scotland is higher than in England, according to an NOP poll. When asked if Scottish spending should be brought in line with English levels, 56% said that it should, 28% that higher Scottish spending should continue, while 16% didn't know.

Source: The Herald, 14 May 2001 Technical details: NOP interviewed 1,003 adults. Fieldwork dates and other details not reported.