General Election 2001 - Election Digest

1. Times/MORI survey

A week on from the first campaign poll, Labour has maintained its 54% share, with the Conservatives on 28%, according to a MORI for The Times. The first poll conducted on 8 May following the official announcement of the general election date had the parties on 54% and 30%. The Lib Dems are down one point over the week to 12%.

Overall, three in ten, 31%, of those who name a party say they 'may change their mind' before election day, slightly higher than 28% in 1997. But the proportion of these 'waverers' differs by party: they account for 56%, 31% and 25% of Lib Dem, Tory and Labour supporters respectively.

Labour leads the Conservatives as 'having the best team of leaders', 47% to 13%. The party is also thought to have 'the best policies for the country as a whole' by 42%, with the Tories on 17%. Labour also has a strong lead on being 'most clear and united about what its policies should be': 40%, compared with 9% for the Tories and 16% for the Lib Dems, giving Labour a 15 point lead over them combined.

Further details and Peter Riddell's analysis is featured in The Times, 17 May 2001.

Full questionnaire and results Source: MORI/The Times, 16 May 2001 Technical details: A representative quota sample of 1,019 adults 18+, interviewed face-to-face, in home, across Great Britain on 15 May 2001.

2. Latest ICM/Guardian findings

The latest ICM/Guardian survey puts Labour on 46, the Tories on 31, and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. This puts Labour down one, the Tories down two, and the Liberal Democrats up 2% on figures from ICM's previous comparable survey (fieldwork ended 22 April).

More than twice as many of the public believe that Tony Blair has most in common with themselves and their lifestyles as do so of the other two main party leaders, (17% and 15% for William Hague and Charles Kennedy respectively). The Labour party lead the Tories by 29% to 25%, with the Lib Dems on 11%, when respondents were asked which party has the best policy on tax. 53% of voters think that tax should be increased only for those paying higher rates of tax, and 43% think that taxes should be increased for everyone.

A clear majority, 41%, favour Labour's public spending policies, compared to the 20% and 10% who do so for the Tories and Liberal Democrats respectively.

Source: ICM/The Guardian, 16 May 2001. Technical details ICM interviewed 1,004 adults aged over 18 by telephone between 13-14 May 2001.

3. Majority think the Tories irrelevant in Scotland

More than half (52%) of Scots agreed with a statement saying that "the Tories are no longer relevant in Scotland", according to a System Three/Scottish Television survey. 39% disagreed, and 9% did not know.

Source: The Daily Record, 16 May 2001. Technical details: not stated.