General Election 2001 - Election Digest
MORI/Sunday Telegraph Survey NOP/Sunday Times Poll ICM/Observer Poll ICM/News Of The World Marginals Survey Tories Behind In Two Key Scottish Seats Latest System Three Scottish Findings ICM/Evening Standard National And London Poll
MORI/Sunday Telegraph Survey
Only 11% think the Conservatives have run the most effective campaign so far and, on this measure, the party is third behind Labour and the Lib Dems, at 37% and 19% respectively. These figures are similar to those four years ago when the Tories were also in third place. A third, 32%, say 'none' or answer 'don't know'.
The salience of Europe as an issue has increased, but it still ranks behind health and education. Europe is mentioned spontaneously by 14% (up seven points since the MORI/Sunday Telegraph poll of 10-12 May) as an issue which will be very important in helping them decide how to vote, but the issue is edged into fourth place by pensions (15%) and overshadowed by education (39%) and health care (50%).
Twice as many say they like Tony Blair as dislike him: 61% say they like the PM, twice the 29% who don't. More like William Hague now than at any time during his leadership but his policies are disliked more than ever. On both measures the balance of like minus dislike is still heavily negative. The Conservative leader is liked less than John Major was throughout the 1990s.
Source: Sunday Telegraph, 3 June 2001 Technical details: 1,010 interviews by telephone on 31 May-2 June 2001. Full questionnaire and results at www.ipsos-mori.com/polls/2001/st010601.shtml
NOP/Sunday Times Poll
Labour has 47% of the vote, the Conservatives 30% and the Liberal Democrats 16%, according to the latest NOP/Sunday Times poll of voting intentions. However, asked to choose between a Labour government inside the Euro or a Tory government outside the Euro, only 43% preferred Labour and 38% the Conservatives; 13% said "neither" and 6% didn't know.
Three in four agreed that "politicians never answer the questions people put to them".
The public is split on whether William Hague should step down as leader if the Tories lose, 46% saying that he should but 42% that he should stay on as leader.
Source: Sunday Times, 4 June 2001 Technical details: NOP interviewed 1,105 adults by telephone on 31 May-1 June 2001.
ICM/Observer Poll
Two-thirds of all current Labour supporters would be prepared to switch to the Lib Dems if the party was better-placed to defeat the Tories, according to an ICM poll for the Observer. Twice as many (33% to 16%) think that they and their family would be better off under a Labour government than a Conservative one, a wider gap than in 1997 (when Labour led by 32% to 22%).
Half the public think that "Labour has become too right wing in recent years"; 40% of Labour supporters think the same.
The voting intentions are Labour 46% (down 2 points since the start of the campaign), Conservative 34% (up 2), Liberal Democrats 15% (no change).
Source: Observer, 3 June 2001 Technical details: ICM interviewed 1,005 electors by telephone on 30 May-1 June 2001.
ICM/News Of The World Marginals Survey
There has been a 4.25% swing to Labour in the key marginals since 1997, according to an ICM survey for the News of the World. This is projected to a Labour majority of 197, with the Tories losing ten seats.
Source: News of the World, 3 June 2001 Technical details: ICM interviewed 1,514 adults in the 139 most marginal seats, by telephone on 29-31 May 2001.
Tories Behind In Two Key Scottish Seats
ICM constituency surveys carried out in two key Scottish seats shows the Tories significantly behind Labour in both.
In Edinburgh Pentlands, where Sir Malcolm Rifkind is standing for the Tories, the Tories are 12% behind Labour, who are represented by Lynda Clark. In Eastwood, where Scottish Tory chairman Raymond Robinson is the candidate, they are 17% behind Labour, who are represented by Jim Murphy.
The survey shows the Tories to have less support now than in 1997 when they lost all of their Scottish seats.
Source: The Guardian, 4 June 2001 Technical details: none given.
Latest System Three Scottish Findings
The latest System Three survey of Scottish voters, the last before the General Election, gives Labour a Westminster voting intention lead of 21% over second place SNP. Labour are unchanged since last month on 47%; the SNP down 1% on 26%; the Tories down 2% on 13%, and the Liberal Democrats up 2% on 11%.
The survey also tested voting intentions for a Scottish Parliamentary election. Here Labour's lead over the SNP is only 4% in the constituency vote (39% to 35% respectively), and on the second vote the SNP lead labour by 4% (34% to 30%).
Source: The Herald, 4 June 2001 Technical details: System Three interviewed 1,048 electors in 40 constituencies across Scotland between 24-30 May 2001.
ICM/Evening Standard National And London Poll
An ICM poll for the Evening Standard puts Labour on 47%, the Conservatives on 30% and Liberal Democrats on 18% (representing a 2% swing to Labour since 1997); of voters in London alone, 53% intend to vote Labour, 26% Conservative and 14% Liberal Democrat, a 4.5% swing since the election.
Source: Evening Standard, 4 June 2001 Technical details: ICM interviewed "some 1,400 voters" by telephone "over the weekend [of 2-3 June]"
