Half of global citizens think the Arab Spring will only lead to governments that are as bad as they are now

Half of global citizens think the Arab Spring will only lead to governments that are as bad as they are now

A new poll conducted by Ipsos (before the military action in Libya began) indicates citizens in 23 countries around the world are not convinced that public uprisings in the Middle East and Africa will bring about better government.

If the public uprisings in these countries are successful in changing their government and/or their leader, half (52%) think it will create real democratic governments where their citizens can both vote and have a real say in their future. However, 47% say the current government in each country will just be replaced by another government or leader that will be as bad, or worse, than the previous one.

The public in Britain are among the most cautious. Two in five (41%) Britons think the uprisings will bring about real democracies while three in five (59%) believe even if the protestors are successful in overturning their governments an equally bad government will take its place. US citizens are equally wary, while the French – Britain and America’s main ally in the air strikes on Libya – are more equally split (49% and 51% respectively).

Citizens in South Korea and India are more positive about the potential for democracy resulting from the Arab Spring, with three quarters in each country (75% and 74% respectively) believing democratic governments will be created as a result of the uprisings.

Despite the caution over seeing democracies rise up from the Arab Spring movements, a majority of global citizens (72%) agree that regime changes due to public uprisings in the Middle East and Africa will lead to meaningful improvements in the lives of people living in those countries.

Managing Director of Ipsos's Social Research Institute, Bobby Duffy, said:

There are very different reactions to the situations in the Middle East. People across the world think that the uprisings will lead to an improvement in the day to day lives of many in the region. However, the jury is still out on whether it will lead to better governance but only time will tell.

Technical Note

Global @dvisor is conducted monthly in 23 countries via the Ipsos Online Panel system. The countries reporting herein are Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States of America. Due to safety considerations for respondents, those surveyed in Saudi Arabia were given the option of “prefer not to say”. An international sample of 17,531 adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada, and age 16-64 in all other countries, were interviewed between March 2 and March 14, 2011. Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis with the exception of Argentina, Indonesia, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Russia and Turkey, where each have a sample 500+. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics and ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to the most recent country Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points for a sample of 1,000 and an estimated margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points for a sample of 500 19 times out of 20 per country of what the results would have been had the entire population of the specifically aged adults in that country been polled.

• Core findings from the survey can be found in these slides.