Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Expectations of house prices proving resilient According to the latest Housing Market Consumer Confidence survey by Ipsos for the Halifax, the House Price Outlook (HPO) – the balance of those thinking the average UK house price will be higher in twelve months time less those who think it will be – is +15.

This compares to +19 in March and is significant because the March measure was the most positive HPO measure in the four surveys Ipsos has conducted for the Halifax since April 2011 (January’s measure was +7). And June’s measure comes after the confirmation of the double-dip recession and continued economic worries.

• Further Reading: Ben Marshall's Financial Statement blog: Where next for the housing market?

It is still the case that, on balance, the British public (and owner-occupiers among them), consider the next 12 months to be a good time to buy. But buying sentiment continues to contrast sharply with views on selling – 72% think the next 12 months will be a bad time to buy.

• Download the survey topline (PDF)
• Download the full computer tables (PDF)
• Download the Infographic (PDF)

Topline

Q1. Which of these applies to your home?
	%
Being bought on a mortgage	40
Owned outright by household	32
Rented from a local authority/ housing association/trust	15
Rented from a private landlord	12
Other	1
Refused/don’t know	-

Q2. Which one of these applies to you personally?
	%
I am living at home with parents	13
I am looking to buy as a first-time buyer in the next 12 months	2
I am looking to move to a larger property in the next 12 months	3
I am looking to move to a smaller property in the next 12 months	2
I am looking to buy a second home in the next 12 months	1
I am double renting (e.g. homeowners who let their existing home and rent in a different location)	1
I am expecting to contribute financially to a family member buying a property in next 12 months)	2
Don’t know	3
None of these	72

 

I’m now going to ask you a series of questions about property. By property I mean houses, flats, apartments and all types of accommodation. Q3. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to…
	Very good time	Fairly good time	Fairly bad time	Very bad time	Don't know	Good time	Bad time	Net
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Buy a property	12	42	21	10	15	54	31	+34
Sell a property	1	14	46	24	15	15	70	-55

 

Q4. As you may know, the average property price in the UK is £160,118 according to the February 2012 Halifax House Price Index. This card shows possible percentage changes in the average property price with equivalent amounts. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time, or will it be the same? Please just read out the letter which applies.  In 12 months time the average property price in the UK will be…
	%
…higher by 15% or more	1
…higher by 10% or more but less than 15%	4
…higher by 5% or more but less than 10%	13
…higher but less than 5% higher	16
…the same	36
…lower but less than 5% lower	12
…lower by 5% or more but less than 10%	5
…lower by 10% or more but less than 15%	2
…lower by 15% or more	*
Don’t know	10
Higher	34
Lower	19
Net higher (House Price Outlook)	+15

Q5. Now thinking about the current situation, which 2 or 3 of these, if any, do you think are the main barriers to people in general being able to buy a property? Please read out the letters that apply.
	%
Job security/the possibility of people losing their jobs	56
Household finances	31
Concerns about rises in interest rates	12
Rising property prices/prices being too high	20
Being able to raise enough deposit	58
The general availability of mortgages	31
Shortage of property for sale where people want to live	5
Shortage of the right type of property people want to buy	5
Falling property prices making it difficult to sell one property in order to buy another property	10
The fees and costs related to buying a house	12
The level of stamp duty/taxation	6
Other	1
None of the above	1
Don’t know	3

Q6. Finally, what do you think will happen to the rents tenants are charged by private landlords that is individuals and companies working in the private sector (i.e. not local councils and housing associations). Taking your answer from this card and regardless of whether or not you rent your home, do you think that private rents will be higher, lower, or will they be the same in 12 months time? In 12 months time private rents will be…
	%
…a lot higher	12
…a little higher	49
…the same	28
…a little lower	4
…a lot lower	*
Don’t know	7
Higher	61
Lower	4
Net higher	+57

Technical note

• Ipsos survey conducted on behalf of Halifax
• Interviews with representative sample of 1,960 British adults aged 16+
• Undertaken face-to-face, in-home between 22-28 June 2012 across Britain
• Data are weighted to the national population profile by age, sex, working status, region, ethnicity, and tenure
• An asterisk (*) represents a value of less than one half or one percent, but not zero
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding
• A full breakdown of the achieved and weighted sample profiles can be found in the detailed tabulations published alongside this summary
• The tabulations provide further scope for disaggregating the topline data shown above to analysis by socio-demographic groups and by region
• Combinations (e.g. ‘good time’) have been calculated by summing their rounded constituent %s (e.g. ‘very good time’ % + ‘fairly good time’ %). Net figures have been calculated by subtracting the negative combinations (e.g. ‘bad time’) from the positive combinations (e.g. ‘good time’)
• Combinations and nets may differ in the computer tabulations. In the tables they have been calculated from absolute numbers and the base
• In both combination and net calculations in this topline, * has been rounded down to 0