Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker

Rise in house price optimism but signs of a subdued market According to the latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker, more people expect house prices to rise than fall over the coming twelve months. HPO, the headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. the proportion of people that expect the average house price to rise less those who think it will fall), stood at +20 in December. This is the highest reading since the survey began in April 2011, surpassing the previous high of +19 in March 2012. Optimism has risen since the last survey in October when HPO stood at +15. Other findings:

• 38% expect the average house price to rise, 18% anticipate a fall. The equivalents are 35% and 17% among owner-occupiers (a HPO of +18).
• Most expect modest price changes; 61% expect movement between +5% and - 5%.
• Sentiment remains strongly against selling; only 13% think the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, much lower than the 53% who think the same of buying.
• Fewer than one in ten (9%) think it will be a good time to both buy and sell over the coming months, suggesting the level of housing market activity is likely to remain subdued in 2013.
• Concerns over job security (58%, up 7 points since October) and raising a deposit (55%) are picked out at as the main barriers to buying.
• The majority of the public, and private renters, expect private rents to rise in 2013. In fact, 13% and 10% respectively expect them to rise a lot despite hitting record levels this year.

Downloads

• Download the survey topline (PDF)
• Download the full computer tables (PDF)
• Download the Infographic (PDF)

Technical note

Interviewing took place either side of the Autumn Statement on 5 December (most interviews were conducted beforehand) and involved interviews with 1,927 British adults aged 16+ between 30 November-10 December. Data has been weighted to the known population profile.