Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker shows more people expect house prices to rise than fall in the next twelve months.
Sharp rise in house price optimism but market remains subdued
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker shows more people expect house prices to rise than fall in the next twelve months. HPO, the headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. the proportion of people that expect the average house price to rise less those who think it will fall), has increased to +33 in March wave, up from +20 in December.
This is a new high for the survey since it began in April 2011, surpassing the previous high of +20 in December 2012. Optimism has risen since October 2012, when HPO stood at +15.
Other findings:
The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker shows more people expect house prices to rise than fall in the next twelve months. HPO, the headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. the proportion of people that expect the average house price to rise less those who think it will fall), has increased to +33 in March wave, up from +20 in December.
This is a new high for the survey since it began in April 2011, surpassing the previous high of +20 in December 2012. Optimism has risen since October 2012, when HPO stood at +15.
Other findings:
- 45% expect the average house price to rise, 12% anticipate a fall. The equivalents are 44% and 14% among owner-occupiers only (a HPO of +30).
- Most expect modest price changes; 66% expect movement between +5% and - 5%.
- Sentiment remains against selling; only 21% think the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, much lower than the 55% who think it will be a good time to buy.
- Fewer than one in five (16%) think it will be both a good time to buy and sell over the next 12 months, suggesting housing market activity is likely to remain subdued in 2013.
- Concerns over job security (58%, as in December 2012) and raising a deposit (57%, up from 55% in December) are most commonly identified as the main barriers to buying.
- The majority of the public, and private renters, expect private rents to rise in 2013 (67% and 62%, respectively). In fact, 12% and 10% respectively expect private rents to rise a lot in the next 12 months.
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Technical details
Interviewing took place during the week of the Government’s budget announcement and involved interviews with 1,702 British adults aged 16+ between 15 March-02 April (c. 490 of these were conducted before the announcement). Data has been weighted to the known population profile.
