Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker

There has been a significant improvement in sentiment towards the UK housing market; however, whilst the gap between buying and selling expectations is narrowing the regional variations remain, according to the latest quarterly Halifax Housing Market Confidence tracker conducted by Ipsos.

Public expect house price rises not falls by 11:1 margin

The latest Halifax Housing Market Confidence Tracker finds 70% of the public expecting the average UK house price to rise in the next 12 months (6% expect falls) up from 35% a year ago and the highest since the survey’s inception over two years ago.

HPO, the headline House Price Outlook balance (i.e. the proportion of people that expect the average house price to rise in the next 12 months less those who think it will fall), reached +64 in September 2013.This is a rise from +40 in June, and continues the upward trend since October 2012, when HPO stood at +15.

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Other findings include:

  • Among owner-occupiers HPO is +70 (75% versus 5%).
  • Regionally, HPO is +67 in London, compared to +52 in the North West and in Scotland.
  • Now 41% think the next 12 months will be a good time to sell, an increase of eleven percentage points since June. It does though remain lower than the 57% who think it will be a good time to buy.
  • Just under one third (30%) think it will be both a good time to buy and sell over the next 12 months, up from 23% in June and 9% a year ago.
  • Being able to raise enough deposit continues to be the most commonly identified main barrier to property purchase (63% say this), while 58% cite job security as a barrier.
  • The majority of the public, and private renters, expect private rents to rise in 2013 - 66% and 61%, respectively.  

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Technical Note

Interviewing took place with 1,970 British adults aged 16+ between 13-23 September 2013. Data has been weighted to the known population profile.

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