House price confidence remains high alongside expectation of interest rate rises

Confidence in rising property prices has rallied and remains high, moving from the June to the September 2015 waves of the Housing Market Confidence Tracker. At +63, house price optimism (HPO) – as measured by the proportion expecting the UK average property price to rise in the next 12 months, less the proportion expecting it to fall – has stayed stable since the June survey wave, where this figure stood at +64. The month prior to this, in May 2015, HPO had reached a ‘survey high’ on this measure, at +68.  

In the September wave of the tracker, just under seven in ten Britons (68%) said they expect a rise in average UK property prices over the next 12 months compared to 5% who expected a fall, mirroring the findings in June’s survey wave.  

Meanwhile the proportion of Britons who think it’ll be a good time to buy in 12 months’ time has fallen slightly since June from 56%, to 53% in September. And the proportion saying the next 12 months will be a good time to sell has fallen seven percentage points to 52% in September, from 59% in June. This brings positive selling sentiment back to the levels seen one year ago, when 53% of Britons said in September 2014 that the next 12 months will be a good time to sell.

Regionally, positive buying sentiment is lower in London than among Britons overall, with 40% of Londoners saying they thought the next 12 months would be a good time to buy, compared with 77% saying the same in Scotland, and 58% in North England. When asked whether they think the next 12 months will be a good or a bad time to sell, just under two thirds (64%) of Londoners said it will be a good time, compared to 48% who said this in Scotland, 47% in North England and 43% in the Midlands.  

At the same time, there has been a marked increase in the proportion of Britons who expect mortgage and savings interest rates to be higher in 12 months’ time. Over half of Britons (58%) expect mortgage interest rates to be higher, compared to 48% who said this in June 2015. Just over a third of Britons (35%) expect interest rates for savings accounts to be higher in 12 months’ time – nine percentage points higher than in June (when this figure was 26%). And three in ten Britons (29%) expect an increase in both mortgage and savings interest rates, up from twenty percent in June.

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Technical note

Ipsos interviewed 1,956 British adults aged 16+ face-to-face, between 11th – 24th September 2015 (974 adults for mortgage and savings interest rate questions). Data have been weighted to the known population profile.