How Project Fear failed to keep Britain in the EU - and the signs that anyone could have read

With everyone from Mark Carney to President Obama giving warnings about the possible impact of Brexit on the economy, expectations that Remain would win were common right to the end – including among the public themselves, according to our research. But throughout the campaign the signs that Project Fear wasn’t working were there. 

1. Immigration became the focus, not the economy

Whilst the conventional wisdom has been that in the end the decision would hinge on the economy, in the final two weeks of the campaigns, Ipsos’s Political Monitor found immigration become the top ranked issue which would impact how people would vote, replacing the economy.  And our monthly Issues Index told the same story – while concern about the EU rose by four percentage points in June just ahead of the referendum, concern about immigration rose by ten.

CREDIT: IPSOS

2. The leave campaign messages were getting more cut-through

With each side lobbing claims and counter claims in the lead up to the vote, the same research found the leave campaign’s were getting better traction – despite being contested.  Just a week out from the referendum 45 per cent believed a vote for remain would be followed by Turkey gaining fast-track entry to the EU – and its population effectively granted free movement to the UK.  

Read full article on www.telegraph.co.uk