Howard As Tory Leader

There's no "bounce" yet evident in the public's voting intention for the Conservative Party after the Tory MPs' choice of Michael Howard as the Leader of the Party. Taking the voting intention expressed last week, before the deposing of Iain Duncan Smith (which was by then widely anticipated) and this weekend, when it became evident there would be only one candidate for the Tory leadership going forward, the Conservatives are down, not up, by three percentage points, to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats, Labour remaining the same at 38 percent.

• After Duncan Smith: What Now For The New Tory Leader?

Topline Results

• Results are based on 1,005 interviews conducted by telephone with a sample of residents aged 16+ across Great Britain
• Interviews were conducted between 31 October -- 2 November 2003.
• Data are weighted by gender, age, class, region, work status and tenure to the known profile of Great Britain.
• Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to multiple responses, computer rounding or the exclusion of 'don't know/not stated' response categories.
• Voting figures exclude: would not vote (12%), undecided (9%), and refused (1%)
• Trend data from previous MORI surveys is included where applicable.

QV1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

QV1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All absolutely certain to vote, 516 -- 50% of the electorate

QV3 If Michael Howard was leader of the Conservative Party, Tony Blair leader of the Labour Party, Charles Kennedy leader of the Liberal Democrats, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow, would you vote? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q3 QV4 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+ (Howard as Tory leader)

QV1 If Michael Howard was leader of the Conservative Party, Tony Blair leader of the Labour Party, Charles Kennedy leader of the Liberal Democrats, how would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow, would you vote? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q3 QV2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All certain to vote, 516 -- 50% of the electorate (Howard as Tory leader)

Q5 How likely would you be to vote in a General Election tomorrow, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 2,018 British adults 18+

Q6 On balance, do you agree or disagree with the of the following statement?

Note: Iain Duncan Smith question asked 11-16 September 2003. Difference equates to a swing since September of +16.5%

Q7 And in general would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?

Note: For Conservatives asked of William Hague in Oct 00 and of Iain Duncan Smith in June 03. Swing for Blair since June 03 is -0.5%. Swing from IDS to Howard is -5% All trend questions above are based on adults aged 18+