Net migration likely to fall close to pre-Brexit levels but public still expects immigration to increase

New net migration statistics published today (09:30am) could show a fall to pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000, thinktank British Future predicted today, based on published Home Office visa data – but its separate new research suggests the public may not notice.

New research finds only 16% of the public expect net migration to be lower in one year’s time, despite net migration halving last year and continuing to fall. More than twice as many people (38%) expect net migration to increase, with 31% expecting it to remain the same.

Most of the public also thinks net migration increased last year, according to the new research – when in fact numbers halved. The new findings from the Ipsos/British Future Immigration Attitudes Tracker, published today (27 November), show that 56% of the public thinks immigration increased last year. Yet the last set of net migration statistics in May showed that 2024 numbers more than halved to 345,000 from 848,000 a year earlier (1).

New government proposals on settlement risk being more restrictive than most of the public would choose, the research finds (though there is no consensus for the limit staying at 5 years either). Half (50%) think migrants doing graduate-level jobs should only wait 5 years or less before qualifying for settlement, and 53% think those doing mid-skilled jobs should wait less than 10 years. Regarding the proposed 15-year wait before low-skilled migrants can apply for permanent settlement, only 21% think low-skilled workers should wait more than 10 years (though only 35% think it should stay at 5 years or less).

The report finds that while attitudes to immigration are becoming more polarised, there remains a large group it terms the ‘Balancer Middle’, holding nuanced views and recognising both the pressures and gains that immigration can bring. At the same time it notes the ‘rise of the rejectionists’: a growing, aggrieved and vocal minority who see no positive impacts from immigration to the UK. Asked to rate the impact of immigration on the UK from 0 (negative) to 10 (positive), the proportion giving the most negative zero score has risen to 16% this year from 7% in June/July 2021. Overall 42% rate immigration’s impact on Britain as 0-4 out of 10 (up 5ppts since last year), and 38% score it 6-10 (-2).

Four in ten people (41%) want immigration numbers reduced ‘a lot’, with a further 16% wanting more modest reductions. Just over a third of people (35%) want numbers to stay the same (21%) or increase (15%). People struggle, however, to say what migration for work they would cut – only a minority would reduce migration for study, or indeed for work in most occupations tested in the research, such as doctors, care workers, lorry drivers or seasonal farm workers. 

The public also significantly overestimates the proportion of immigration made up of people seeking asylum. On average, people think asylum makes up one third (33%) of all immigration to the UK, more than work (27%) or study (21%). In fact around 14% of immigration was for asylum in the year ending June 2025. Six times as many people came for work and study in the UK (2).

This is a problem for the government because asylum is the focus of public disquiet about immigration. Dissatisfaction with how the government is dealing with immigration is at 56% – an increase from 48% in last summer’s tracker post-election (though still lower than the 69% who felt dissatisfied with the Conservative government in the February 2024 tracker).  Of those who are dissatisfied, the most common reason given – by 73% of dissatisfied respondents –  is that “The government is not doing enough to stop migrant channel crossings”. The other top reasons given are “Being too generous to migrants/asylum seekers,” (65%) and “Allowing too many people to claim asylum in Britain” (63%). 

The findings illuminate the limitations of an immigration debate focused largely on asylum and on competing promises to reduce net migration numbers, says British Future. Public trust on immigration has been significantly undermined by successive governments making big promises to cut immigration numbers and ‘stop the boats’ but failing to deliver, it says. But if Britain is returning to more ‘normal’ levels of net migration – from the unprecedented peak of 900,000 in YE June 2023 – the debate needs to keep pace.

Sunder Katwala, Director of the British Future thinktank, said:

Net migration is falling, with today’s figures likely to show another drop towards pre-Brexit levels of around 300,000 – yet our political debate hasn’t caught up. As numbers move closer to ‘normal’ levels, politicians can’t just keep competing over who will cut them further. 

The risk for Keir Starmer’s government, which is promising to get a grip on numbers, is that constant crisis messaging only reinforces the public belief that asylum and immigration are out of control.

Public attitudes are becoming more polarised: a growing minority – around one in six – now see no benefits from immigration at all. But that remains a minority. A much larger share of the public holds more balanced views, recognising both pressures and gains when immigration is managed well.

We need a more honest, transparent debate about how much immigration we need and want to keep, how to manage the pressures it brings and how we maximise the benefits to Britain.

Gideon Skinner, Senior Director of UK Politics at Ipsos, said:

It’s clear that immigration is rising up the public’s agenda, a process that started in 2023 but has accelerated further this year.  It is seen as a major source of tension in the UK, and attitudes are now more negative than they have been for some time (although still not quite to the extent they were before the 2016 referendum).  Much of this is driven by persistent dissatisfaction with how successive governments are dealing with it, particularly over the issue of small boats crossing the Channel, and asylum numbers take up an overlarge proportion of the public’s mind when thinking about immigration.

But attitudes towards immigration beyond this show more nuance. Overall, Britons still on balance prioritise a system that delivers control over simply reducing numbers to as low as possible, and across a range of different occupations only a minority want to reduce migration for work.  Meanwhile, Reform is increasing its lead over others on the issue, but no party is trusted by the majority.  This research demonstrates that even when overall numbers are coming down, the government and other parties all need to do more to engage with the public’s concerns over immigration.

Technical note: 

1. In an update on 18 November 2025, the ONS revised down the Year Ending Dec 2024 net migration figure from 431,000 to 345,000, and the YE Dec 2023 net migration figures from 860,000 to 848,000.
2. Based on Home Office breakdown published October 2025.
3. For this latest wave of the Immigration Attitudes Tracker, Ipsos surveyed 3,003 adults (18+) across Great Britain, online from 16 June to 2 July 2025. Data are weighted to reflect the population profile.  All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.  It is the latest of 18 waves of research into public attitudes to immigration since 2015.