Ipsos June Political Monitor 2013

CON 31 (nc); LAB 35 (+1); LIB DEM 10 (nc); UKIP 12 (-1)

For the June "Trust in MPs poll" click here

The June Political Monitor shows mixed news on the relative economic credibility of the parties following last week’s speeches by Ed Miliband and Ed Balls. While Ed Balls has edged ahead of George Osborne in terms of being seen as the most capable Chancellor, and Labour have closed the gap to the Conservatives on being seen as the most effective in getting good value for public money, David Cameron still leads Ed Miliband on being the leader most trusted on the economy.

Having been tied with George Osborne in December last year, Ed Balls now holds a three point lead as the “most capable Chancellor”: 38% to 35%. However, David Cameron holds a 12 point lead over Ed Miliband as the leader most trusted to deal with the economy: 37% say they trust David Cameron the most on the economy compared with 25% that trust Ed Miliband, 7% Nick Clegg and 6% Nigel Farage. This shows no significant change from last month.

The Conservatives and Labour are virtually tied in terms of being seen as the party that would be most effective in getting good value for the public money it would spend in government: 38% choose the Conservatives and 36% Labour. The Conservative lead of two points is down from 11 in March 2010. The Conservatives have held a lead on this measure since 2008. 

Despite Ed Miliband’s speech on welfare last week, he has not gained any more of the public’s trust on the issue of benefits relative to the other leaders since last month. David Cameron is most trusted by 30% of the public to deal with the benefits system compared with 27% that trust Ed Miliband (28% in May 2013). 11% trust Nick Clegg on the issue and 7% trust Nigel Farage.

Britain’s economic optimism has continued its recent rise and now as many people think the economy will improve in the next year as think it will get worse (31%), 35% think it will stay the same. This gives an Economic Optimism Index of 0 (% improve minus % get worse), which is the first time since July 2010 that it has not been a negative score.

Voting intentions among those saying they are certain to vote are not significantly changed from last month’s Political Monitor with 31% saying they would vote for the Conservatives, 35% for Labour (+1), 10% for the Liberal Democrats and 12% for UKIP. Satisfaction ratings for the government and party leaders also show little change from last month, apart from a fall in ratings for Mr Miliband:

• David Cameron has a net satisfaction rating of -24 (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied), with 34% satisfied and 58% dissatisfied. Three quarters (73%) of Conservative supporters are satisfied with his performance as Prime Minister while 24% are dissatisfied.

• 35% are satisfied with Mr Miliband’s performance as Labour leader compared with 52% that are dissatisfied. His net rating of -21 has fallen by seven points from last month. Half of Labour supporters (50%) are satisfied with their leader while 41% are dissatisfied.

• Nick Clegg has the lowest satisfaction ratings of the party leaders with 27% satisfied and 61% dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -34.

• Nigel Farage remains the leader with the highest satisfaction ratings though 32% say they “don’t know” whether they are satisfied or dissatisfied. 38% of Britons say they are satisfied with the UKIP leader and 31% are dissatisfied. Among UKIP supporters 89% are satisfied and just 3% are dissatisfied. This is the highest approval rating any leader has among their own supporters.

Head of Political Research at Ipsos, Gideon Skinner, said:

“The economy is the top issue in the eyes of the public, but they have become more cautiously optimistic over the last few months.  However, both of the main parties are still facing difficulties convincing voters that they have the right answers to get Britain out of the gloom.”

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Technical details

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,023 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 8^th – 10^th June 2013.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.