Ipsos Political Monitor May 2007
The May Ipsos Political Monitor finds the Conservatives' lead over Labour has narrowed by five points since April. The party now leads Labour by just two points (37% vs. 35%), the smallest Conservative lead recorded by Ipsos this year. Tony Blair's announcement of his intention to resign has triggered a significant increase in net satisfaction with the Government (up nine points since April) and with the Prime Minister himself (up sixteen points since April). However, satisfaction with David Cameron and Ming Campbell has remained broadly constant.
Topline Results
- Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,999 adults aged 18+ at 197 sampling points across Great Britain.
- Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 17-22 May 2007.
- Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
- Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available upon request.
Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(If undecided or refused at Q1)
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,140)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 37 |
| Labour | 35 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 18 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 3 |
| Green Party | 3 |
| UK Independence Party | 2 |
| Other | 3 |
| 160 | |
| Lab lead (177%) | -2 |
| 160 | |
| Would not vote | 2 |
| Undecided | 8 |
| Refused | 2 |
Voting -- all
Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (1,999)
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 33 |
| Labour | 39 |
| Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) | 18 |
| Scottish/Welsh Nationalist | 3 |
| Green Party | 3 |
| UK Independence Party | 2 |
| Other | 3 |
| 160 | |
| Lab lead (177%) | +6 |
| 160 | |
| Would not vote | 13 |
| Undecided | 11 |
| Refused | 2 |
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: 999 British adults 18+
| 160 | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % | % | 177% |
| Government (Q3) | 30 | 60 | 10 | -30 |
| Blair (Q4) | 35 | 57 | 8 | -22 |
| Cameron (Q5) | 29 | 33 | 38 | -4 |
| Campbell (Q6) | 21 | 34 | 45 | -13 |
Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats? Base: All party supporters
| 160 | Base | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Don't know | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 160 | n | % | % | % | % |
| Government (Q3) | 292 | 61 | 30 | 10 | +31 |
| Blair (Q4) | 292 | 63 | 31 | 6 | +32 |
| Cameron (Q5) | 236 | 52 | 22 | 26 | +30 |
| Campbell (Q6) | 125 | 50 | 30 | 20 | +20 |
Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 999 British adults 18+
| 160 | Q7 | Q7/8 |
|---|---|---|
| 160 | % | % |
| Race relations/immigration/immigrants | 22 | 38 |
| National Health Service/Hospitals | 11 | 37 |
| Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism | 14 | 36 |
| Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism | 14 | 27 |
| Education/schools | 5 | 23 |
| Housing | 4 | 11 |
| Pollution/environment | 4 | 10 |
| Economy/economic situation/benefits | 4 | 9 |
| Drug abuse | 2 | 7 |
| Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry | 2 | 7 |
| Pensions/social security | 1 | 7 |
| Morality/individual behaviour | 2 | 6 |
| Taxation | 1 | 6 |
| Poverty/inequality | 3 | 5 |
| Inflation/prices | 1 | 3 |
| Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages | 1 | 3 |
| Public services in general | 1 | 3 |
| Common Market/EU/Europe/EURO/Constitution | * | 3 |
| Local government/council tax | * | 3 |
| Transport/public transport | * | 3 |
| Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament | 1 | 2 |
| Countryside/rural life | 1 | 1 |
| Animal welfare | * | 1 |
| Petrol prices/fuel | * | 1 |
| Privatisation | * | 1 |
| Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform | 0 | 1 |
| GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods | * | * |
| AIDS | 0 | * |
| Bird flu/Flu pandemic | 0 | * |
| Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis | 0 | * |
| Northern Ireland | 0 | * |
| Pound/exchange rate/value of pound | 0 | * |
| Trade unions/strikes | 0 | * |
| Tsunami/South East Asia | 0 | 0 |
| Other | 3 | 6 |
| Don't know | 5 | 4 |
Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 999 British adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Improve | 14 |
| Stay the same | 48 |
| Get worse | 34 |
| Don't know | 5 |
| Ipsos EOI | -20 |
Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,999 British adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| 10 -- absolutely certain to vote | 57 |
| 9 | 5 |
| 8 | 6 |
| 7 | 4 |
| 6 | 2 |
| 5 | 6 |
| 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 |
| 1 -- absolutely certain not to vote | 11 |
| Don't know | 2 |
| Refused | 1 |
Q11 Which party did you vote for at the General Election on May 5th 2005? If you are not sure, or did not vote, please say so. Base: 1,999 British adults 18+
| 160 | % |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 20 |
| Labour | 32 |
| Lib Dems | 14 |
| Scottish/Welsh nationalist | 2 |
| UKIP | 1 |
| Green | 1 |
| Other | 1 |
| Did not vote | 20 |
| Too young | 3 |
| Can't remember | 3 |
| Refused | 4 |
