Ipsos Political Monitor, February 2009

Ipsos has published the February Political Monitor showing the Conservative Party with a 20 point lead over Labour, an increase of 6 points on last month.

Fieldwork: 13-15 Feb 2009 CON 48%(+4) LAB 28%(-2) LIB DEM 17%(n/c)

Ipsos's February 2009 Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 13-15 February among 1,001 British adults aged 18 and over) shows that among those absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party voting intention share has increased by four points to 48% since January, and the Labour Party share has fallen by two points to 28%. The Conservatives therefore have a twenty percentage point lead among those absolutely certain to vote. Public satisfaction with Prime Minister Gordon Brown and with the Government have also decreased from last month (see below), although satisfaction with both remain higher than their lowest points in July 2008.

Other key findings from this month's Monitor include:

  • Prime Minister Gordon Brown's personal ratings have fallen since January 2009: almost two thirds (64%) are now dissatisfied with the way he is doing his job as Prime Minister, and a quarter (26%) are satisfied, giving a net score (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) of -38. This compares to last month's figures of a third (33%) satisfied with Brown, and three in five (59%) dissatisfied, yielding a net figure of -26.
  • Overall satisfaction with the Government has also decreased since last month. Just over a fifth (21%) are satisfied with how the Government is running the country, and seven in ten are dissatisfied (70%). This compares to 27% satisfied and 65% dissatisfied in January 2009.
  • Satisfaction with the Government among Labour supporters has dropped notably: in January 2009, 56% were satisfied and 36% dissatisfied, giving a net score of +20. This month, 45% are satisfied, and the same percentage are dissatisfied, giving a net score of 0.
  • The public's opinion of how David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party has shown a slight increase since last month: 43% are satisfied and 34% dissatisfied, yielding a `net' figure of +9, which is a three point increase from last month (last month's figures are 44% satisfied and 38% dissatisfied).
  • Similar to last month, around a third (35%) of the public are satisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats, and a quarter (26%) are dissatisfied. As in previous months, however, the most frequent response to this question is `don't know' (39%).
  • Those who think the economy will get worse over the next 12 months still far outnumber those who think it will improve. The proportion of those who feel the economic condition of the country will improve in the next twelve months is 20%, while 60% feel it will get worse. In both cases these findings are the same as in January. The Economic Optimism Index (those who think it will get better minus those who think it will get worse) therefore remains at -40.

Download the February topline Download the February tables Download the February trend charts

Technical details

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,001 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13th-15th February 2009.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't know" categories, or multiple answers.  An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less than half a per cent. Voting intention figures exclude those who say they would not vote, are undecided or refuse to name a party.

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