Ipsos Political Monitor October 2007

Ipsos's October Political Monitor data (fieldwork 18-23 October) shows a 1 point Labour lead amongst those who say they are certain to vote. The Conservatives are on 40% and Labour on 41%, with the Liberal Democrats on 13%.

The data shows a strong resurgence for David Cameron in terms of his personal satisfaction ratings. While last month 23% of the public were satisfied with the way he was doing his job as Conservative leader, and 45% dissatisfied, this month 36% are satisfied and 38% dissatisfied. This is a 13-point leap in satisfaction for the Tory leader, which is his highest personal satisfaction rating yet -- and indeed the highest for any Tory leader since Blair came to power in 1997 (see Satisfaction Ratings 1979-Present).

Brown's personal satisfaction rating, on the other hand, has dropped off: for the first time his dissatisfaction rating (38%) is higher than his satisfaction (37%) rating. This is a drop in satisfaction of 7 points from last month's high of 44% -- and an increase of 12 points for his 'dissatisfaction' rating.

Topline Results

• Ipsos interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,987 adults aged 18+ at 191 sampling points across Great Britain.
• Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 18-23 October 2007.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
• Full data tabulations (weighted and unweighted) are available on request.
• Download the data tabulations pdf, 273KB

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,076)

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,987)

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Base: 1,004 British adults 18+

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country? Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister? Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party? Base: All party supporters

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,004 British adults 18+

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,004 British adults 18+

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,987 British adults 18+

Q11 Which of the following three statements would best describe your attitude to the Liberal Democrats?