Issues That Bite

ICM reports today on a 1000 case telephone poll carried out on 19-21 May, which finds a 1997-like 45% Labour, 32% Tory, 17% Liberal Democrat result, which if projected to seats in the House of Commons would deliver Labour of the order of 177 seats, before adjusting for regional swing and turnout, although ICM does report on those they think most likely to vote.

More tomorrow on the implications of the ICM poll and Gallup and MORI, due out tomorrow in the Telegraph and Times respectively.

Last week I took up with issues as a voting determinate, and wrote that issues don't count for as much as they should for four very good reasons:

Salience: If people don't care about an issue, one party or another's argument is not going to sway that voter to move their allegiance.

Discernment: If people don't discern differences between the parties on the issues they care about, then they are not going to change their allegiance either to support the party which they think has a sound policy on the issue they care about, or reject a party which they don't think has the best policy on that issue.

Ability: If people don't think the party that has the best policy on the issue they care about has the ability (power) to do something about it, they won't be moved, and

Will: If people don't think the party that has the best policy on the issue they care about has the will to something about it, they won't be moved.

Having said that, now with a week more of the election gone and the Tories if anything are further behind in the polls than a week ago, comparing like with like, MORI against MORI, Gallup against Gallup, NOP against NOP and ICM against ICM, the trends are the Liberal Democrats up a point or two at the expense not of Labour, as we expected, but Tories.

Which issues do bite, and by how much?

Health care is in primary position, with 61% saying that at this General Election Health care is an issue that will be "very" important to them in helping them to decide which party to vote for according to the MORI survey in The Economist last Friday, fieldwork 10-14 May, among 1,800+ adults throughout Great Britain. The analysis I think is important is which party these 61% of the electorate, not the rest, think has the best policies, and among these people Labour has a more than three to one lead, 49% to 14%.

Education, in second place, has 53% thinking it an important issue to them, Labour also leads by nearly four to one, 46% to 12%.

The third place is held by Law and Order, with the 44% who think this is an important issue having the parties level pegging, 31% for Labour, 29% for the Tories.

Pensions and Taxation are tied for fourth place, at 35%. Among those 35% who said pensions, there's again a three to one lead for Labour, 47% to 17%, and among those 35% who said tax, they are level pegging, 30% for Labour and 33% for the Conservatives.

Three in ten, 29%, say that Managing the Economy is "very" important, and there, again, Labour stands three to one over the Tories, 51% to 17% among the people who put managing the economy in sixth place.

Seventh, a quarter, 25% say Unemployment/Jobs, and with these folks, Labour leads the Tories by a massive 8:1, 60% to 7%.

Eighth place Asylum Seekers/Immigration, which the Tories led off their campaign with, is the issue on which the Tories do best among the top eight, with over a third of those who think it is an important issue, 36%, saying the Tories are best, and only 14% Labour.

In ninth position is Public Transport, at 23%, followed by 10th place Protecting the Environment (20%). Transport is split three to one for Labour, 32% to 11%, while the Environment is open for grabs, with opinions split between Labour (18%), Liberal Democrats (18%) and the Greens (16%) and the Tories in fourth place (11%).

Then, tied for 11th, is Housing and Europe, each at 18%. On Housing, Labour has a four to one lead, 38% to 9%. On Europe, about to burst on the British electorate if the Tories nerve holds, among those who think it is "very" important, the Tories lead Labour, 44% to 28%.

Those are the top 12 issues. Since April 1997 at the last General Election, there's been the following swings to Labour:

So the Tories have done best, or the Labour Party worst, on Public Transport (-8.0%) and on Housing (-4.0). Who is their Transport spokesman? And Housing? These are potential winners for them, yet not a peep out of them so far as I've noticed.

Fifteen days and counting.