Jeremy Corbyn's ratings

In a guest blog, David Cowling analyses what Ipsos's poll ratings mean for the leader of the Labour Party.

This article has been written independently by David Cowling and does not necessarily reflect the views of Ipsos.

The table below sets out the first twelve months of Mr. Corbyn’s ratings in the Ipsos satisfaction/dissatisfaction with party leaders time series.

It is often the case that any new leader of the Opposition initially generates a substantial number of “don’t knows”; it is to which side of the fence those “don’t knows” go in subsequent months when they develop firm opinions that is of greatest interest.

Ipsos satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings for party leaders
  David Cameron  Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron
Fieldwork dates  Sat  Dis Sat Dis Sat Dis
2015 % % % % % %
19-22 Sept  42 52 33 36 22 29
17-19 Oct 42 51 37 39 22 27
14-17 Nov 40 55 37 40 18 32
12-14 Dec 41 55 33 50 24 31
2016            
23-25 Jan 42 51 31 49 22 32
13-16 Feb 39 54 30 51 20 34
19-22 Mar 34 59 35 46 24 36
16-18 Apr 37 56 38 43 21 29
14-16 May 31 61 31 50 22 33
11-14 Jun 35 58 27 52 19 32
9-11 Jul 28 66 24 65 21 37
   Theresa May        
13-15 Aug 54 19 25 58 22 30

We can see that Theresa May is enjoying a “polling honeymoon” (that she must hope lasts longer than a marital one) that was not afforded to Jeremy Corbyn. In terms of the general public, at no time in the first twelve months of his leadership has he registered a positive net satisfaction rating. Since this Ipsos time series began in March 1977, Michael Foot and Jeremy Corbyn are the only two Labour leaders who, in the first months of their tenure, began with negative ratings.

Looking at those twelve months in detail we can see that only in two of them did Mr. Corbyn register a greater level of satisfaction than David Cameron – he led him by 1% in both March and April 2016 (and also achieved parity in May 2016).

In the next table I have taken the same polls and looked at satisfaction/dissatisfaction exclusively among party supporters. So, the David Cameron ratings are based on Conservative voters and Jeremy Corbyn’s among Labour voters. The Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, is excluded because the number of Lib Dem voters was so small in the samples.

Ipsos party leader satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings among their own voters

  David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn
Fieldwork dates  Sat Dis Sat Dis
2015  % % % %
19-22 Sep  86  11  55  14
17-19 Oct  85  10  64  16
14-17 Nov  80  18  65  18
12-14 Dec  81  18  56  28
2016        
23-25 Jan  82  14  54  32
13-16 Feb  79  17  56  31
19-22 Mar  68  21  62  21
16-18 Apr  71  24  66  24
14-16 May  66  27  56  31
11-14 Jun  69  27  50  35
9-11 Jul  60  36  45  48
   Theresa May    
13-15 Aug  70  15 39 47
We can see that during his last troubled eleven months as Conservative Party leader, David Cameron received greater levels of satisfaction from his own voters than Jeremy Corbyn was able to manage among Labour voters. Also, that for the last two months Mr. Corbyn has registered net dissatisfaction ratings among Labour voters.

Jeremy Corbyn’s standing among Labour Party members

Although there may be more in the pipeline, I have so far discovered three YouGov polls sampled among Labour Party members drawn from among their internet panelists. The first was sampled in November 2015, the second in May 2016 and the third in June 2016. They can be found on the YouGov website and they contain a series of questions repeated across all three surveys. Three of the questions particularly interest me and I set these out below. I have produced two tables for each of them – the first is based on the total sample and the second records the answers of members who said they voted for Jeremy Corbyn in the 2015 Leadership contest.

Q Do you think that Jeremy Corbyn is doing well or badly as Leader of the Labour Party?

 All members 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Well  65 72 51
Badly  34 27 48

 

 Corbyn voters 2015 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Well  86 90 75
Badly  13 9 23

The November 2015 survey – three months after Jeremy Corbyn’s election – found that two-thirds of party members thought he was doing well as party leader; and this figure rose to 72% in May, following the local election and prior to the EU referendum. However, the third survey (sampled within a week of the EU referendum result) saw those who thought he was doing well fall to barely half. Among his 2015 voters, around nine-out-of-ten thought he was doing well in the first two surveys but this fell to three out of four in June 2016 – without question still a massive level of approval but given that many of his 2015 voters believed his leadership of the party was his pre-eminent task, then almost one-quarter of them taking the view in June that he was doing it badly is of some interest. Many people across the political spectrum and beyond it would agree that leading a political party is not the same as leading the country. YouGov cut to the quick with another of their questions to Labour Party members: Q How likely or unlikely do you think it is that Jeremy Corbyn will ever become Prime Minister?

 All members 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Likely  38 47 27
Unlikely  52 46 66

 

 Corbyn voters 2015 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Likely  54 67 42
Unlikely  34 25 47

Whereas all three polls found majorities who thought Mr. Corbyn was performing well as party leader, none of them produced 50% or more who believed it likely that he will ever become Prime Minister. In November 2015 there was a 14% majority for those who thought it unlikely. By May 2016 there was a 1% majority for “likely”; and by June 2016 the lead among those who thought it unlikely had rocketed to 39%.

Among Jeremy Corbyn’s voters from 2015, in November 2015 barely half thought in likely he would ever become Prime Minister; this figure rose to two-thirds in May 2016 but turned into a 5% negative figure in June 2016. The difference between how they view his party leadership and his prospects of becoming Prime Minister is quite striking. In November 2015, 86% of Corbyn voters from 2015 thought he was doing well as party leader, compared with 54% of them who thought it likely he would ever be Prime Minister: the comparable figures for the May survey were 90% versus 67% and in June 2016 they were 75% versus 42%.

The third question to Labour Party members that interested me in the YouGov surveys was – perhaps not surprisingly – how likely Labour were to win the next general election under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership. We know from the past 12 months of polling among the general voting public that the party’s prospects currently do not appear promising but what do Labour members think?

Q If Jeremy Corbyn remains leader of the Labour Party, how likely or unlikely do you think it is that they will win the next general election?

 All members 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Likely  46 53 35
Unlikely 43 39 57

 

 Corbyn voters 2015 1,443 members sampled 19-23 Nov 2015  1,043 members sampled 9-11 May 2016 1,220 members sampled 27-30 June 2016
   % % %
Likely  64 74 55
Unlikely  23 20 35

Three months into his leadership, a modest 3% majority thought a general election victory was likely. By May 2016 just over half took that view but by June 2016 there was a decisive majority (22%) in favour of unlikely. Among 2015 Corbyn voters, between two-thirds to three-quarters thought victory likely with Mr. Corbyn at the helm but this fell to 55% in June 2016.

David Cowling is an independent Political Analyst. If you'd like to post a comment, please read our comments policy. 

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