Keir Starmer opens clear lead over Rishi Sunak as the most capable Prime Minister

• First Ipsos Political Monitor of the year shows Labour 22 points ahead.
• Approaching 7 in 10 Britons say it is time for change

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 17th  – 23rd  January 2024, explores public attitudes to the Conservatives and Labour, what issues will decide their vote at the coming General Election as well as current voting intention figures and satisfaction with the government and the party leaders.

Most capable Prime Minister and voting intention

When asked which party leader would make the most capable Prime Minister, Keir Starmer has opened up a 13-point lead on Rishi Sunak.  39% choose Keir Starmer and 26% choose Rishi Sunak. The rest said neither or don’t know. Starmer’s 13-point lead is up from 4 points in October and the largest he has held over Mr Sunak since he took office.

In terms of voter preferences:

• Labour’s lead is up to 22 points from 17 in December . Labour led by 21 points in November.
• Labour 49% (+8 pts), Conservatives 27% (+3), Liberal Democrats 7% (-6), Green 7% (-2), Reform UK 4% (-3), Other 5% (-1).
• Almost half (48%) of those with a voting intention say they have definitely decided who to vote for – but 49% may change their mind. 

Leader satisfaction ratings

• 78% are dissatisfied with the way the government is running the country (-4 pts from December). 13% are satisfied (+1 pt).
• 20% are satisfied with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as Prime Minister (-1 from December) and 66% they are dissatisfied (-3). 
• 55% of current Conservative voters are satisfied with the job Sunak is doing (+3 points) and 35% are dissatisfied (-6).
• Keir Starmer’s ratings are largely unchanged from December, with his net rating -18 up from -21 in December. 30% are satisfied with the job he is doing (N/C) and 48% are dissatisfied (-3).

Time for change

• 60% disagree that the Conservatives deserve to be re-elected (down 5 points from October). Just 19% agree that they do (unchanged).
• 18% would describe the current government as competent (+2 from September) and 64% disagree (-5pts)
• 41% of the public agree Labour is ready for government (-2 from October) and 36% disagree (down 3). Meanwhile, 35% think Keir Starmer is ready to be Prime Minister (-2 from October) and 37% disagree (-4).
• 69% think it is time for change at the next General Election (up 4 points from July). This is made up from 61% that think the Conservatives have done a poor job and it is time for change and 8% that think they have done a good job but it is time for change. 22% think it is not time for change at the next election, made up of 10% that think they have done a good job and 12% that think they have done a poor job.

Most important issues 

• When asked which issues are likely to be the most important when deciding how to vote, the top issues for the public are the NHS (28%), inflation / rising prices (23%), the economy (22%) and immigration (19%).
• For Labour voters the top issue is the NHS but for Conservatives the top issue is immigration.

• 24% expect the economy to improve in the next 12 months (+2 pts from December) and 50% expect it to get worse (no change). This makes net economic optimism -26. This measure was -56 in November 2022, just after Rishi Sunak took office.

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos, said:

2024 isn’t showing much sign of starting off any better for the Conservatives than 2023 ended. Time for a change sentiment is still strong, the public remain concerned about the NHS, the cost of living, the economy and immigration, and Rishi Sunak has dropped further behind Keir Starmer as the public’s most capable PM.  What comfort the Conservatives do have – that there is still a lack of enthusiasm for Labour, and that economic optimism has slightly improved from last year’s lows as inflation falls – seems quite outweighed by public dissatisfaction with the way the government is delivering on the issues they really care about.

Technical note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,003 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 17th to 23rd January 2024. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.