Labour supporters back coalition with SNP or Greens over Liberal Democrats
Conservatives prefer coalition with Liberal Democrats over UKIP
The Ipsos Political Monitor for February shows the majority of Labour supporters back a coalition with the Scottish National Party or the Green Party if no party has an overall majority after the general election. Around six in ten Labour supporters would back a coalition with the Scottish Nationalists (58%) or the Greens (64%), while just less than half would back a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (48%) – down from 62% in January 2014. More Labour supporters still support a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (48%) than oppose such a coalition (36%), however.
Conservative supporters, on the other hand, would be happier forming a coalition with the Liberal Democrats (68% would support this) than UKIP (31%) were there to be another hung parliament. The proportion of Conservatives backing a Tory-UKIP coalition has fallen nine points from 40% in January 2014. Almost six in ten (57%) of Conservatives would now oppose a coalition with UKIP, up from 44% last year.
Most Liberal Democrats would be equally happy to join a coalition with either Labour (65%) or the Conservatives (62%) in the case of another hung parliament. Most UKIP voters would back their party forming a coalition with the Conservatives (63%) but not Labour (31%), with the reverse being true for the Greens (34% would support a coalition with the Conservatives, 73% with Labour) and the Scottish National Party (10% for the Conservatives, 49% for Labour). (Although base sizes are smaller for these groups of voters, so these results should be considered indicative only).
Labour are the party currently receiving the largest amount of tactical support, with just over one in five Labour supporters (22%) saying they do so to keep another party out, rather than because the party represents their views. Around one in ten each say they are voting Conservative (10%), UKIP (9%) or Liberal Democrat (7%) to keep another party out. In previous years, the Liberal Democrats were most likely to say they chose their vote to keep another party out (16% of Liberal Democrats said so in May 2010, compared with eight percent each for the Conservatives and Labour). Overall, eight in ten (81%) say they are voting for the party that most represents their views, with 15% supporting a party to keep another party out.
Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos said:
"The British public might not like the idea of coalitions in theory, but they're prepared to support them in practice if it gets their party into power. Given all the talk about the possible permutations of a coalition after the election, this poll shines a light on what individual voters think - which prospective partners they are prepared to support, and those they don't want."
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Technical note:
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,010 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 8-10 February 2015. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Base sizes of Liberal Democrat, UKIP, Green Party and Scottish National Party voters are below 100 and should be considered indicative only.
