The labours of Labour

This article has been written independently by David Cowling and does not necessarily reflect the views of Ipsos. 

The Labour Party is going through a turbulent period at present and its current leadership campaign is certainly generating a lot of heat. At the heart of the issue is the allegation that Jeremy Corbyn is unelectable. Inevitably both his supporters and opponents are using figures and historical comparisons to prove or disprove this assertion. The purpose of this note is to rehearse the evidence.

In this developing civil war it would be unrealistic to believe that the evidence will be presented in a dispassionate and impartial way. An early example of this was the figures circulated around the Labour Party in the aftermath of the May 2016 local elections:

1995: Blair's first local elections - 46% of councillors won – “Labour landslide"

2006: Cameron's first local elections - 41% councillors won – “best Tory result for years" 2016: Corbyn's first local elections - 47% councillors won – “disaster for Labour"

The clear implication of the figures quoted is that under Mr. Corbyn Labour had won more seats than Tony Blair or David Cameron in the comparable first set of local elections held after they became party leaders, yet his success was unfairly represented as a “disaster”.

However, the figures quoted above inadvertently miss some rather important context.

In 1995, Blair was only able to finish with 46% of the seats up for election that year because he made a net gain of 1,661 seats. In 2006, a much smaller number of seats were up for election (about 4,700 compared with 10,800 in 1995) but Cameron was only able to end up with 41% of the seats up that day because he made a net gain of 317 seats. In 2016, the only reason Corbyn achieved success in 47% of the seats up that day was that Labour started out with 48%, because, for the first time since 1985 (outside of a general election year) the main Opposition party lost seats in the annual local elections.

Standing of Labour Opposition Leaders in the polls

Mr. Corbyn is approaching his first anniversary as Leader of the Labour Party. How does his standing with the electorate compare with previous Labour leaders in Opposition at the same period of time? He was elected Leader of the Labour Party in September 2015. Between October 2015 and July 2016 he had served ten full months as party Leader.

The table below sets out the Labour Party’s average support in voting intention polls ten full months after each Leader was elected. It also sets out the net satisfaction (+) versus dissatisfaction (-) for each Leader ten full months into their term, using the long MORI time series for this particular measure of public opinion.

	Monthly average of Labour support in the polls	Ipsos net satisfaction with Labour Leader
	%	%
Michael Foot (Sept. 1981)	38	-24
Neil Kinnock (August 1984)	39	-7
John Smith (May 1993)	45	-7
Tony Blair (May 1995)	48	+28
Ed Miliband (July 2011)	39	-7
Jeremy Corbyn (July 2016)	30	-41

The table suggests that Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is performing 8 points worse than under Michael Foot at the same time in the latter’s leadership of the party; and that Mr. Corbyn registered almost twice the level of unpopularity as Mr. Foot on the same basis.

Focus group research findings

On 29 July 2016, Lord Ashcroft published a blog on his website (Lord Ashcroft polls) announcing that he had commissioned focus groups in Leeds, Manchester, Newcastle and Glasgow and that the full details would be published in September. The blog included “a snapshot” of the findings from the groups and the section relating to views about the Labour Party was as follows:

As for the Labour Party, “where do you start? I’ve never seen a party like it. It’s a farce.” Jeremy Corbyn “is the greatest thing for the Tory party that ever happened. He’s the gift that keeps on giving. Totally unelectable”. Labour voters thought him “unprofessional” and “too far to the left”, and the party “a right mess”, “a catastrophe”, and “a basket case”. The party was no longer representing its voters: “The membership is students, extremists, socialists, the far left;” “I hope May doesn’t call an election. We would be entirely wiped out.” Labour’s disintegration had left “a massive chasm at the centre of politics. If there was a new party, I’d give them a go.” Even Tories were worried: “It’s not good news that the party is so weak. I voted Conservative, but it means there is no debate about their plans.”

Nobody had an opinion about Corbyn’s leadership challenger (“Oliver something?”), though one said they had seen him on Newsnight: “He was good, but any of us would look good on Newsnight now that Paxman’s gone.” Even if he won and turned out to be competent, the party was such a mess that “it will take him some time to get it right.”

It’s not opinion polls but real votes that matter

But what about actual votes cast for Labour in elections? The table below sets out the performance of the parties in the annual council elections in the first four years of Ed Miliband’s leadership (2015 is excluded as there was a general election on the same day as the locals) and gives the first set under Mr. Corbyn’s stewardship.

Net gains/losses of seats in annual council elections (England)

Year	Con	Lab	Lib Dem	Others	Total Seats
Miliband
2011	+85	+857	-747	-208	9,460
2012	-328	+534	-190	-52	2,412
2013	-337	+290	-125	+172	2,439
2014	-236	+324	-310	+233	4,262
Corbyn
2016	-48	-18	+45	+21	2,782

Clearly, Ed Miliband’s first set of annual local elections in 2011 comprised a major set of contests with nearly 9,500 seats up for election, compared with broadly 2,800 in 2016. Also, in 2016 Labour was defending the high water mark they achieved in these seats in 2012 when they won 48% of the seats contested that year. However, there is no disguising the fact that 2016 was a wretched Labour performance; a little over half the seats being contested were held by other parties and Labour not only failed to make any net gains from among them but actually suffered a net loss of seats.

In addition to the annual council elections there are by-elections for occasional vacancies almost every week of the year. In the past these have been another useful indicator of the respective strengths of the main parties. In the table below, I have taken the period May 2010-May 2011 that straddled Ed Miliband’s early leadership and then the comparable period for Jeremy Corbyn’s tenure (May 2015-May 2016). In addition, there is also data for the period May-August 2016. The figures record the net gains/losses by party among the council by-elections held during each period.

Net gains/losses of seats in council by-elections

	May 2010 - May 2011	May 2015 - May 2016	May 2016 - Aug 2016
Labour	+24	+5	-2
Conservative	+22	-12	-6
Lib Dem	+4	+5	+10
Others	-6	+2	-2

In the year following Labour’s 2010 election defeat the party performed significantly better in council by-elections than in the year following their 2015 defeat. And in the shorter period (May-August 2016) Labour fell into net losses whereas the Lib Dems dominated the gains table.

In terms of performance in Westminster by-elections, the table below records the increase/decrease in Labour’s share in such contests in those parliaments since 1979 when Labour was in Opposition. Each column sequence is by descending date order, starting with the first and ending with the last by-election in each of the respective parliaments.

Increase/decrease in Labour by-election vote compared with previous general election

79-83	83-87	87-92	92-97	10-15	15-
%	%	%	%	%	%
-0.1	-5.9	+5.0	-8.2	+10.3	+7.3
0.0	-1.6	-27.8	-9.4	+13.5	+5.8
+6.5	+2.8	+0.3	-8.3	+12.3	-0.8
-11.7	+3.7	-2.9	+20.5	-2.2	+8.7
-13.2	-1.5	-6.9	+6.8	+10.8
-14.1	+3.9	+14.2	+16.6	-20.3
-15.9	-5.9	-9.9	+7.7	+8.4
-8.5	+9.4	+2.6	+19.7	+9.7
-9.7	+1.3	+24.4	-11.5	+16.4
-20.8	+10.4	+8.5	+28.1	+8.7
-5.8	+2.7	+4.3	-5.1	+14.6
-9.7	-1.9	-3.8	+10.5	+1.6
-9.5	-1.2	+8.9	+13.9	+0.2
-8.8	-8.2	+11.5	+1.1	-1.5
-8.4	-4.5	-11.5	+22.0	+11.2
-37.5	+2.5	-10.1	-0.8	-4.6
-6.0		-8.3	+18.0	-13.8
		-11.6		+0.8
		+11.6		-11.7
		-11.3
		-0.7
		-8.2
		+4.5

What, if anything, can we learn from these figures? Firstly, that the first three parliaments (1979-92) were dominated by the Lib/SDP and of the 20 seats that changed hands in by-elections over that period, eleven were won by them. Secondly, that even during the 1992-7 parliament that ended with an extraordinary 10.2% swing to Labour, the Lib Dems still gained four of the eight seats that changed hands in by-elections. In the 2010-15 Parliament, 14 of the 19 by-elections were in Labour seats and all four to date in the current Parliament were Labour vacancies. Whilst Labour’s performance since 2015 has been below that of the early by-elections post-2010, there is not an enormous amount in it. In truth it’s not as if Labour faces strong opposition in its seats at present: the Lib Dems appear a busted flush and UKIP struggles to regain the initiative they seized so sensationally in the 2010-15 parliament. What we really need is a by-election in a marginal seat to be able to assess Mr. Corbyn’s value as a by-election vote winner for his party.

Conclusion

It must be really intoxicating for party leaders to be transported from the London bubble to adulatory meetings around the country, packed with the converted who applaud their every word. But we all know that the next election will not be won on the votes of those scattered thousands but by the 30 million or more who will vote at the next general election despite never attending a party rally.

There is no secret alchemy that delivers victory to any party at general elections. The basic requirements for success are quite simple: you need convincing and robust policies that chime with the needs and aspirations of voters; and a leader whom those same voters are confident has the qualities required to be a Prime Minister capable of delivering such a programme. The evidence suggests that Labour has failed significantly on both counts since its defeat in the 2015 general election; and they desperately need to reverse that failure if they are to stand any chance of winning the next general election. Current support for the party is significantly less than it was at the same point of time under Michael Foot and Ed Miliband, let alone Tony Blair. And Mr Corbyn’s personal ratings appear to be in free fall with little evidence to date that he is carrying a parachute.

Membership of the Labour Party has increased astonishingly since the 2015 general election. Recruiting voters is their problem.

David Cowling is an independent Political Analyst. If you'd like to post a comment, please read our comments policy.