Looking Back: 1979 - Labour Doomed

In the run-up to the 1979 General Election, Labour's Prime Minister James Callaghan lost the election in the "Winter of Discontent". Is Brown doomed to defeat in 2010?

Gordon Brown is the beleaguered Prime Minister now, but in 1978-79, at the time of the "Winter of Discontent", James Callaghan was the beleaguered Prime Minister and Margaret Thatcher his still-untried challenger. That was the last time that a Labour government came to the turn of the year before an election trailing in the polls. Ipsos is now republishing some long-forgotten polls from the run-up to the 1979 election on its website to see what parallels there are now to what happened then. Then, as now, voting intention polls were volatile at the margin, swinging from almost level in November 1978 (when the Conservatives led Labour by 43% to 42%) to a cavernous 19-point gap (55% to 36%) just two months later, at the end of January 1979. Gordon Brown would be more than happy to be trailing by only a single point now; on the other hand, no polls have shown him as much as 19 points behind since August. Circumstances today are very different. These days the operation of the electoral system gives a substantial advantage to Labour, requiring the Conservatives to have an eight to ten point lead over Labour to win a bare majority over all other parties. Then the `others' were only 3%; now they are scoring between 10% and even 15% in some polls. Then the bias was slightly in favour of the Conservatives. Mr Callaghan knew that, with uniform swing from the previous election, a one-point Conservative lead would put Mrs Thatcher within touching distance of an overall majority; a one-point popular vote defeat for Gordon Brown would certainly keep him in Downing Street. Margaret Thatcher's position then was in many ways similar to that of David Cameron now - a relatively unknown Conservative whose leadership election had been something of a surprise, challenging a Prime Minister who having taken over mid-Parliament had also never faced a general election, chosen as the Tory Leader not so much for her own untapped qualities of leadership but to keep other competitive candidates from election. Thatcher's approval ratings fluctuated during the 1977-9 period. Indeed, there were frequently more people dissatisfied than satisfied with the way she was doing her job as Opposition leader. In November 1978 her net rating was -13 (38% satisfied and 51% dissatisfied), much worse than any of David Cameron's poll ratings. (See chart.) Only 11% at that stage did not have an opinion of Mrs Thatcher - partly, no doubt, because she had been on the scene much longer than David Cameron has, having been an MP for twenty years and having already served in Ted Heath's cabinet. No doubt, too, many had an opinion, some positive many negative, simply because of the novelty of having a woman as party leader, as demonstrated in Labour's private polling at the time.

Remember also how little public exposure party leaders had 30 years ago. Broadcasting Parliament on the radio had only just been introduced, and TV cameras in the Commons were still years away: voters had to rely for their impressions on occasional staged news events and party political broadcasts, unless they happened to see the leaders at a live meeting (which even in those days applied only to a vanishingly small fraction of the public). Today, even with wall-to-wall coverage, constant spin-doctoring and an ever-increasing range of communications, 18% say they don't know if they are satisfied with David Cameron's performance. Modern apathy and disengagement? Or just a leader making less of an impact than his predecessor? But the real contrast between today and 1978-9 is in the standing of the Prime Minister. Even when confidence in his government collapsed, "Sunny Jim" Callaghan, the "avuncular father figure" remained a relatively popular figure. In November 1978, before the disastrous events of the "winter of discontent" and an iconic but unfair Sun headline applied the coup de grace, 54% of the public were still saying they were satisfied the way he was doing his job, even though only 39% were satisfied with the government and the Tories had a lead in voting intentions. By the time of our first poll the following year, at the end of January, satisfaction with the government had plummeted to 17% - around the level the Brown government was plumbing this summer, but lower than its current 21% - and Callaghan's rating dipped too, down to 31%. But the next poll found him back over 40%, and he maintained that up to the election; Gordon Brown has only achieved 40% satisfied in one monthly poll since the "election that never was" more than two years ago. Brown has one advantage that Callaghan did not, the power to resist an early election - Callaghan headed a minority ministry in a hung Parliament, and ended by fighting an election at a time not of his own choosing when he lost a vote of confidence in the Commons. It is difficult to see how a choice of election date can help Brown, especially now that a May election is so universally expected that an early poll could easily be portrayed as a dirty trick and might thereby do more harm than good. Notwithstanding that famous "Crisis? What crisis?" headline, Callaghan knew perfectly well what the crisis was but could do nothing to avert it. Can Brown do any better, from a position apparently much worse? History suggests not, but history is sometimes a very poor guide to politics.160160

Dr Roger Mortimore is Ipsos's Head of Political Research Sir Robert Worcester is the Founder of MORI

MORI was not only polling for the Evening Standard in 1978-9 but also for the Sunday Times, Daily Express and the Scotsman and was doing the Labour Party's private polling as well. MORI's founder, Bob Worcester, was working directly with Mr Callaghan and his entourage as he had with Callaghan's predecessor, Harold Wilson, in the 1970 and the two 1974 elections. He first worked closely with Mr Callaghan in the EEC Referendum in 1975 and then throughout the time he was Prime Minister. Mr Callaghan after his defeat told Worcester that he had known that he would at best be left with a hung parliament or a few seats' majority, and as the Lib-Lab pact had run its course, and so to call an October election would deprive the country of any chance (under a Tory government) of settling with the trade unions. Callaghan said he had vowed to `soldier on' in the hopes of saving Britain from the strife that was to deliver Labour such a crushing defeat in the May election, after his government fell. On election day, 3^rd May, MORI reported in the Evening Standard its forecast of 45% for the Conservatives, 37% for Labour, and 14% for the Liberals.160 The final result when all the votes had been counted was 45% Tory, 38% Labour and 14% for the Liberals.