Marginals Poll - March 2010
The first in a series of polls in key marginal constituencies, our new poll for Reuters suggests that the Conservatives are doing slightly better in the marginals than nationally, but not enough to guarantee a majority. Later polls will track voting intention and turnout in these key battleground areas during the campaign. Voting intention in these key marginal constituencies is Con 37, Lab 41, LD 11% (among those who are certain to vote). Assuming uniform swing, this would result in a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party. This four point Labour lead represents a 5% swing to the Conservatives in this band of key marginal constituencies, compared to the 4% swing at a national level that we have just recorded on our March Political Monitor. Nevertheless, everything is still to play for, since almost half the public (46%), and more than a third of those who are certain they will vote, say they may still change their mind about which party to vote for. Labour and Conservative voters are more likely to say they have definitely decided who to vote for (60% and 59% respectively) than Lib Dem voters (23%); this leads a lot of scope for tactical voting by Liberal Democrats, in these constituencies where it could easily be decisive. Half of the public in marginal constituencies say they are certain to vote (53%, in line with the national picture). Certainty of voting is much higher among those who think they know whether the constituency is marginal (whether or not they say yes or no) than among those who don't know. Only a quarter (25%) say they live in a marginal constituency, while 45% admit they don't know. But 30% say that their constituency is not marginal. (Technically, this is true, and highlights the scale of the task that the Tories face: to gain a majority they must be able to win in these key seats where Labour won comfortably last time and which would not conventionally be defined as "marginal".) Possibly the situation may change dramatically as more of the electorate in these constituencies come to appreciate that they are the voters who hold the balance. Healthcare, education and the economy are the most important issues to voting in these marginals (all 29%). These are the same top three issues that are important nationally, although the economy appears to be slightly less important in marginal constituencies than to the public as a whole (32% nationally). Labour has a clear lead over the Conservatives on two of these three issues, while on the third the parties are roughly level. * Labour is seen as having the best policies on healthcare by a very large margin (38%, compared to 21% who say the Conservatives). This reflects opinion nationally, although appears to be more pronounced in the marginals. Further, Labour's lead is much wider (45% to 20%) among those who say this is an important issue in deciding how they will vote. * Labour also leads on education in the marginals (32%, compared to 24% who say the Conservatives). By contrast, at a national level the parties are neck and neck on this issue. * Neither party has managed to establish a lead on the economy in the marginals (29% say Labour, 28% say the Conservatives); nationally the Tories have a narrow lead of three points. Over half of the public in the marginals think that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome of the election (55%). This is in line with public opinion nationally (59%). However, few think that a hung parliament would be good for the UK economy (28%). This is fewer than the proportion who say this in our national polling (37%). Reflecting our national data, around three in ten voters in the marginals think that a Conservative majority government would be best for the economy. A Conservative majority government is perceived to be the best outcome for reducing the level of government borrowing (38%). It is also seen as the best outcome for maintaining international confidence in the UK economy (31%) and getting good value for the public money the government spends (29%).
Please click here to view the Thomson Reuters article.
Technical Details
This data is based on 1,007 adults aged 18+ across 56 marginal constituencies in Great Britain. These are Labour-held constituencies which the Conservatives need a swing of between 5% and 9% to win.Fieldwork took place between 19th and 22nd March 2010. Where possible, comparative data is provided from Ipsos's March Political Monitor - a national survey. Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,503 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 19-22 March 2010. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
