Michael Howard Less Popular Than Duncan Smith Or Foot
There's more gloom and doom for Michael Howard, the Leader of the Conservative Party, in this month's MORI poll, carried out just a few days ago exclusively for the Observer. There is unhappy news for the Prime Minister as well, as the poll shows that the British now prefer Gordon Brown as Prime Minister to Mr Blair, and many more people say they trust the Chancellor than say the trust the PM.
In just eight or nine weeks we'll be in the thick of the election. MORI's latest findings show a six point lead for the Labour Party over the Tories, 38 percent to 32 percent, with the Liberal Democrats lagging behind with 22 percent, not remotely within striking distance of dislodging the Conservatives to become the Opposition after the next election. This is a blow for the Lib Dems, as a month ago, they were at 26 percent, and one or two pundits have been hinting at a Liberal Democratic breakthrough, which looks very unlikely.
On these figures, which would be a 1.7 percent swing from Labour to the Conservatives, the state of the parties in the House of Commons would be Labour with a loss of 25-30 seats, the Tories gaining fewer than ten, and the Liberal Democrats picking up just a handful, resulting in Labour coming back with a third Labour landslide of between 120 and 130 seat majority.
Michael Howard's satisfaction rating has sunk to a new low. Now just 22 percent say they are satisfied with his performance as Leader of the Opposition, lower than John Major's January 1997 rating just before Blair's election triumph, two points above Michael Foot in January 1983 before Mrs Thatcher's 143 seat victory that year, 12 points behind where Kinnock was when he lost to Major in 1992, below Hague, and as bad as where Iain Duncan Smith was the month before he was replaced by Howard.
And it gets worse. MORI found that as well as being becalmed for some nearly a year in the low 30s, and reaching new depths in his satisfaction ratings, when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, Michael Howard ties with the Liberal Democratic Leader Charles Kennedy with 17 percent each, with Mr Blair more than double either, at 39 percent saying they believe that Mr Blair is, still, the best of the lot (or possibly, of a bad bunch).
And if that's not enough, when asked "In general, would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not, Michael Howard is trusted by fewer people than trust Tony Blair, 28 percent to 32 percent, and nearly half the electorate, 47 percent, say that they think he is untrustworthy".
Still, it's not all good news for the Prime Minister either. Over half the public, 57 percent, now say that he is untrustworthy and only 32 percent say they can trust him, making his 'trust' rating a minus 25, while his Chancellor, Gordon Brown, scores a net plus 19, exactly half saying they consider him to be trustworthy, while 31 percent say he is not. These are slightly better ratings than Kennedy's, and streets ahead of either Blair or Howard. In 2000, 46 percent said they thought Tony Blair trustworthy, nearly half again as many as say now that he can be trusted.
In fact, Gordon Brown outpoints Tony Blair on being thought to be a capable Prime Minister, 39 percent to 35 percent, in a head-to-head contest. Among Labour supporters however, perhaps surprisingly, by two to one, 56 percent think Blair a capable PM to 28 percent who believe Gordon Brown is. Where Brown outscores Blair as being the most capable is among Conservative supporters, 47 percent to 26 percent, and among Liberal Democrats, 51 percent to 34 percent.
In June 2001, at the time of the last General Election, MORI asked the public which wings of each party they felt closest to, which we dubbed 'the political pie'. At that time, there was a plurality for 'New Labour', 29 percent saying that was their 'political identity', while 12 percent then said they felt closest to 'Old Labour'. This 17 point gap is now nearly closed, as ten people in a hundred have deserted 'New Labour', a third of Labour's supporters in 2001, while there are now four people in a hundred who have crossed back to now think of themselves as 'Old Labour'.
The 'One Nation Tories' have lost almost half their number, falling from 11 percent to 6 percent, while 'Thatcherite Tories have gone up somewhat, from 9 percent to 11 percent. The total of 19 percent who identified with the Liberal Democrats split 12 percent 'Liberals' to 7 percent 'Social Democrats' in 2001 and are much the same today. The largest group in the electorate in these terms are those that say 'none of these', which in 2001 were just 6 percent, and now are 15 percent. Perhaps it is these disenchanted who represent the bulk of the loss from 'New Labour' and 'One Nation Tories' and who are the 'plague on all your houses' abstainers in the next election, accounting for the fall in turnout from 59 percent in 2001 to just a bare majority, 51 percent, who say they are certain to vote in the election when it comes.
Who are these people opting out? The demographics are clear, and startling. In 2001, among those 65 and over, 70 percent voted. That figure remains the same. But 39 percent of those then between 18 and 24 voted in 2001; that figure now certain to vote is just 26 percent, a drop of 16 points. In the next age cohort, 25-34, the drop is 10 points, among 35-44 9 points, and the next two, 45-54 and 55-64, 5 points. The findings are stark, and the message is clear. Those under 35 have opted out of party politics in a big way, and as in election after election in recent years has shown, it's the young who have disengaged.
As our work for the Electoral Commission has shown, it's not apathy, it's disengagement, and despite the efforts of the politicians and the media to interest the young in democratic participation, it just isn't working, and increasingly it becomes clear that tinkering with process isn't going to reverse the trend. Without a new look to political debate, talking about the War, NHS, education, crime and law & order, in a reasoned manner, putting forward solutions instead of insults, curbing the slanging matches and yah-boo that goes on in the Commons and on the Today Programme, turnout will continue to fall as people opt out of choosing, as they see it, between the lesser of two, or three or four, evils.
Technical details
MORI's Political Monitor is from interviews with a representative sample of 1,051 adults aged 18+ at 195 sampling points across Great Britain, in-home 20-24 January 2005. Data are weighted in each survey to match the profile of the population
