Monitoring Scotland’s economic recovery
Our latest survey on the public mood about the economy has revealed that Scots are feeling more upbeat about future economic prospects, and shows confidence in the Scottish economy has caught up with the UK economy for the first time in nearly two years. Although pessimists still outweigh optimists, the gap has closed considerably since last measured in February. When asked about prospects for the Scottish economy, around four in ten (41%) believe conditions will worsen compared to 28% who believe conditions will improve. This gives net optimism of -13%, an improvement of 24 points from February when net optimism stood at -37%. Confidence in the UK is now at similar levels, with 42% believing conditions will worsen against 28% who think they will improve, giving net optimism of -14%, an improvement of 20 points from February. This is the first time that confidence in the Scottish economy has outperformed the UK economy since we started measuring these indicators in August 2009.
This increase in confidence is not reflected in the intention of Scots to increase spending on 'big-ticket' items, moving homes, buying cars or taking holidays overseas. The latest survey shows no significant movement in the public's appetite for spending on these items; around half (48%) intend to take an overseas holiday in the next year, while 13% intend to but a new or replacement car and 11% intend to move home. These are all similar figures to the last two surveys in February 2011 and November 2010.
Mark Diffley, Research Director at Ipsos Scotland said:
'Although pessimists still outweigh optimists, our latest survey shows significantly higher levels of economic optimism among the Scottish public. It is unclear at the moment whether this represents a genuine shift in public mood or whether it is a short-term blip ahead of the forthcoming Holyrood elections. We observed a similar spike in consumer confidence before last year's general election. However, this was followed by a sharp decline in optimism as economic realities became apparent. We will continue to measure these trends to see if confidence continues to grow.'
Technical Note
Data are based on a survey conducted by Ipsos by telephone with a representative sample of 1,002 adults in Scotland between 14 and 17 April 2011. Data have been weighted.
