More than half of Britons think the economy will worsen in the next 12 months

The latest Ipsos Political Monitor, taken 19th to 25th January, shows more than half of Britons think the economy will worsen in the next 12 months.

When asked if they think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?

• 56% say it will get worse (up 4 points from December)
• 27% think it will improve (+2 points)
• 13% think it will stay the same (-6 points
• 3% don’t know (-1 point)

This gives a ‘net economic optimism score’ of -29. The last time it was worse was last February 2021 (-31).  Women are more pessimistic than men, with 61% of women thinking the economy will get worse in the next 12 months compared to 51% of men.

Head of Political Research at Ipsos in the UK, Gideon Skinner, said of the findings:

Concern about inflation is rising, and many Britons believe their household costs are going to increase over the next 6 months – especially utility bills and food shopping.  This all means the Conservatives can’t take their lead on growing the economy for granted – Labour is more trusted on the cost of living, while the economic optimism we saw last spring now looks like a short-term response to the vaccine roll-out, which has now been replaced with a less sunny forecast.

Technical Note

Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,059 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone: 19th to 25th January 2022. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.  

On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.