MORI: Most Accurate Results For London Mayoral Election
MORI's London Mayoral election day survey, released yesterday at 10:40pm on ITN (Independent Television News), correctly predicted that Ken Livingstone would be returned as Mayor of London.
MORI's final prediction gave Ken Livingstone a 54% share of the vote to Stephen Norris's 46% share, following the reallocation of second preferences and adjustment for those surveyed who refused to name their choice of candidate. This was the most accurate prediction produced by any research organisation, internet, or conventional, during the mayoral election. Turnout was 37% -- exactly as we predicted.
The survey was conducted by MORI among a representative sample of 3,754 adults, and voting figures were based on all those who said they had voted in the Mayoral election.
The detailed figures are as follows
| 1st preference | 2nd preferences | MORI prediction | Actual result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ken Livingstone (Labour) | 39% | 14% | 54% | 55% |
| Stephen Norris (Conservative) | 27% | 11% | 46% | 45% |
| Simon Hughes (Lib Dem) | 17% | 28% | ||
| Frank Maloney (UKIP) | 5% | 9% | ||
| Darren Johnson (Green) | 4% | 12% | ||
| Ram Gidoomal (CPA) | 2% | 3% | ||
| Julian Leppert (BNP) | 2% | 2% | ||
| Lindsey German (Respect) | 2% | 2% | ||
| Lorna Reid (IWCA) | 1% | 1% | ||
| Tammy Nagalingam (Independent) | *% | 1% | ||
| No second preference | 17% |
In the last Mayoral contest in 2000, the final results were Ken Livingstone 58% and Stephen Norris 42%.
Technical details
MORI interviewed a representative sample of 3,754 adults living in London on 10 June 2004. Voting figures are based on only those respondents who say they voted in the election. The survey was conducted by telephone. Data are weighted to match the known population profile of all adults in London. The figures are subject to a margin of error of +2%. The voting figures exclude those who said they could not remember (3%) and did not vote for a Mayoral candidate (2%) for the first preference. Those refusing to name a party (17%) were reallocated at the run-off stage. For more details contact Ben Page (020 7347 3000)
