MORI Political Monitor October 2005

Public Sector

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

30 October 2005

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,904 adults aged 18+ at 200 sampling points across Great Britain.
Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-25 October 2005.
Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting -- all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,139)

160	%
Conservative	34
Labour	40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	1
UK Independence Party	1
Other	1
160
Lab lead (177%)	+6
160
Would not vote	*
Undecided	7
Refused	2

Voting -- all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1 Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support? Base: All naming a party (1,904)

160	%
Conservative	30
Labour	43
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	1
160
Lab lead (177%)	+13
160
Would not vote	12
Undecided	8
Refused	2

Q3-4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair are doing their job? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

160	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
160	%	%	%	177%
Government (Q3)	35	56	9	-21
Blair (Q4)	36	55	9	-19

Q5 Which one of the following politicians I am going to read out, if any, would you like to see lead the Conservative Party? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

160	%
David Cameron	26
Ken Clarke	17
David Davis	7
Liam Fox	3
Andrew Lansley	0
Stewart Lewis*	1
Theresa May	1
Malcolm Rifkind	1
David Willetts	*
Other	1
None of these	11
Don't know	33

*Fake name

Q6 And if the leadership contest came down to David Cameron or David Davis, which would you like to see lead the Conservative Party? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

160	%
David Cameron	42
David Davis	15
Don't know	43

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous) Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

160	Q7	Q7/8
160	%	%
National Health Service/Hospitals	11	34
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism	17	31
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	13	31
Race relations/immigration/immigrants	18	30
Education/schools	6	26
Pensions/social security	2	12
Economy/economic situation	4	10
Taxation	2	7
Drug abuse	2	6
Pollution/environment	2	6
Poverty/inequality	2	6
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry	2	6
Housing	1	6
Common Market/EU/ Europe/EURO/Constitution	2	5
Morality/individual behaviour	1	5
Local government/council tax	1	4
Transport/public transport	*	4
Petrol prices/fuel	1	3
Public services in general	1	3
Inflation/prices	*	2
AIDS	*	1
Countryside/rural life	*	1
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages	*	1
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament	*	1
Tsunami/ South East Asia	*	1
Animal welfare	*	*
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease	*	*
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods	*	*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis	0	*
Northern Ireland	0	*
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound	0	*
Privatisation	0	*
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform	0	0
Trade unions/strikes	0	0
Other	6	6
Don't know	6	5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? Base: 1,005 British adults 18+

160	%
Improve	9
Stay the same	44
Get worse	41
Don't know	6
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-32

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote? Base: 1,904 British adults 18+