Ipsos in the UK: The Davey Dilemma - Where are the Liberal Democrats at today?

•    9% headline voting intention places the Liberal Democrats behind the Green Party (12%) and trailing far behind Labour (28%) and Reform UK (25%). 
•    Only half (50%) of their 2024 General Election voters are retained for 2026 voting intention, with losses leaking towards the Green Party, Labour, and undecided pools. 
•    Leader Ed Davey holds a 19% satisfaction rating among all British adults, while net satisfaction among his own party supporters lags significantly behind other political leaders. 

London, UK. New analysis and data from Ipsos in the UK ahead of the Liberal Democrats conference reveal a deepening political squeeze facing the Liberal Democrats.

The analysis, using recent polling in August and aggregate 2026 data, highlights mounting strategic challenges as the party struggles to capture public imagination, retain its 2024 general election coalition, and establish a distinct political offering in a volatile political landscape. 

Commenting on the findings, Alex Bogdan, Research Director at Ipsos in the UK said:

The Liberal Democrats find themselves caught in a difficult political purgatory, with a significant parliamentary showing above the Greens, Reform and the SNP but squeezed between a recently ascendant Green Party on the left and major realignment battles across the rest of the political spectrum. 

While previously they have traditionally thrived when transitional Labour and Conservative voters have been in the market for an alternative, they’ve yet to find their firm place in our increasingly fragmented politics.”

While the party retains pockets of traditional strength in London and the South of England and appeals to voters seeking more moderate or minimal change, our data shows they are struggling to hold onto their 2024 base.

Ed Davey's personal likeability is an asset, but, among a crowded field, it is not currently breaking through to drive broader public support for the party or establishing themselves as the challenger voice for voters looking for an alternative to the traditional main parties.  

With half of their 2024 voters looking elsewhere or sitting undecided, the central challenge for the leadership is proving why the Liberal Democrats remain a necessary force in a volatile political era.

"The party’s challenge in Brighton will be to cut through with a unique value proposition to prevent further leakage to competitors who are currently capturing the public's appetite for disruption and change.

Squeezed voting intentions and voter retention leakage

The Liberal Democrats are facing an intense battle for relevance on the national stage, currently registering behind emerging political competitors. 

•    9% current headline voting intention places the Liberal Democrats behind the Green Party at 12%, while Labour leads on 28%, Reform UK on 25%, and the Conservatives on 18%. 
•    Only half (50%) of those who voted Liberal Democrat in the 2024 General Election said this year they intend to stick with the party, with 23% defecting to the Left and 15% to the Right. 
•    The Green Party is proving more successful at attracting 2024 Labour voters than the Liberal Democrats, capturing a larger share of progressive cross-over support. 
•    When looking ahead to the next General Election, 28% of British adults say they are likely to consider voting Liberal Democrat, with stronger support concentrated in the South of England, including London. 

Leadership perceptions and the Ed Davey dilemma

While party leader Ed Davey is frequently recognised for personal warmth, public polling indicates this affection does not translate into commanding political authority or clear brand differentiation. 

•    37% of British adults express dissatisfaction with Ed Davey's job performance as leader, compared to 19% who are satisfied, leaving a net negative balance among the wider public. 
•    Among the party's own supporters, net satisfaction ratings for Ed Davey lag behind high-profile political figures across the spectrum, such as Nigel Farage, Andy Burnham, and Kemi Badenoch. 
•    While 35% of Britons view Ed Davey as an honest person and 31% see him as in touch with ordinary people, only 21% feel he has the right plans for Britain. 

Notes: 

•    For media queries, please contact the Ipsos in the UK Press Office at [email protected]
•    For the full findings, please visit the Ipsos website.
•    Ipsos interviewed representative samples of online British adults aged 18+, drawing on the Ipsos Political Monitor and Ipsos Pulse datasets collected between June and August 2026.
•    Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.