Over half of Britons fear market confidence in government debt ahead of Autumn Budget

Ipsos in the UK and NIESR: Over half of Britons fear financial markets could severely lose confidence in the UK government's ability to pay back debt ahead of the Autumn Budget but torn on the trade-offs when it comes to ways to tackle it.

• 65% of British adults expect the Chancellor to announce tax increases in the upcoming Budget on 28 October, alongside 51% who anticipate increased government borrowing.
• 52% think it likely that financial markets will severely lose confidence in the next five years in the UK government's ability to pay back its debt.
• 47% of Britons correctly identify paying interest on the national debt as one of the areas where the government spent the most in 2025 - outstripping defence and policing - with 70% noting debt interest costs have increased over the past five years.
• 35% of the public prefer reducing borrowing to cut the national debt even if it means less spending on public services, while an identical 35% would prefer cutting personal taxes even if it means service reductions.

London, UK. New joint polling data and research from Ipsos and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), conducted between 9–13 October 2026, reveal a stark disconnect between the public’s fiscal anxieties and their expectations for the upcoming Autumn Budget.

As the Chancellor prepares his first fiscal statement amidst ongoing economic pressures, Britons find themselves caught between acute awareness of the UK's mounting national debt burden and conflicting demands for public investment, tax relief, and deficit reduction.

Public anxiety over national debt and borrowing trade-offs

The data highlights deep public engagement with the reality of the UK's public finances, coupled with profound division on how the government should balance the books.

• When the public was asked on which of three areas they thought the Government spent most on in 2025, 47% of Britons selected paying interest on the national debt, compared with just 17% for defence and 14% for policing and criminal justice.
• 70% of the public recognise that the amount the government spends on debt interest has increased over the past five years (including 42% who say it has increased a lot).
• When forced to choose between competing fiscal levers, public opinion remains split: 35% prefer reducing borrowing to cut the national debt even if it means less spending on public services, compared with 28% who want to increase borrowing to spend more. Similarly, 35% would choose to cut personal taxes at the expense of public services, while 30% prioritise increased public spending even if it means paying higher personal taxes.
• Regarding the government's future actions, 58% of Britons think it is likely the UK government will have to take significant steps to reduce government debt beyond what is already planned over the next five years. Among those who anticipate these extra steps, 40% believe they will occur after the next general election, while just 19% expect them at the upcoming Budget.

Disconnect between public expectations and debt perceptions

While the public demonstrates high awareness of debt pressures, widespread uncertainty persists regarding the true scale of the national debt relative to the broader economy.

• 54% of Britons admit they do not know what the UK government debt-to-GDP ratio is; those who venture a guess tend to overestimate the size of the debt compared to GDP, with a mean guess of £126.50 of debt for every £100 of economic output.
• Two-thirds (65%) of British adults expect the Chancellor to increase taxes in the upcoming Budget, and 51% expect government borrowing to rise.
  Fewer, 32% anticipate an increase in spending on public services, and 30% expect higher spending on benefits and welfare.
• When considering who will shoulder the burden of debt reduction, 53% of Britons believe the government will mostly rely on higher taxes on high earners, while 38% point to higher business taxes and 38% cite clamping down on public sector waste.
• Furthermore, 52% think it likely that financial markets will severely lose confidence in the next five years in the UK government's ability to pay back its debt.
   

Commenting on the findings, Alex Bogdan, Director at Ipsos in the UK said:

Our latest polling with NIESR lays bare the difficult tightrope the Chancellor must walk in this month's Budget.

Britons are acutely aware of the heavy toll exacted by our national debt with nearly half recognising that debt interest swallowed more cash last year than defence or policing and a majority expect further pain through tax rises.

Yet, this fiscal realism sits alongside a clear tension in public preferences. While people are deeply anxious about the state of the public finances and potential market jitters, they remain divided on whether to prioritise debt reduction over public service investment or tax cuts.

Crucially, there is a mismatch between what voters think is necessary and what they expect the government to deliver.

As the Treasury prepares its announcements, the core challenge for the Chancellor next Wednesday will be managing these competing public expectations while convincing sceptical voters—particularly across political divides—that its fiscal strategy offers a credible path to long-term stability without stifling economic confidence which is already impacting their everyday decisions when it comes to personal spend.

Adding perspective on the economic implications, David Aikman, Director at NIESR, said:

The UK’s fiscal plans currently rely on an adjustment that is promised for later years rather than delivered now. This joint research shows that the public understands this. People expect taxes to rise next week, but they also expect the real work of bringing debt under control to be put off.

This Budget is an opportunity to change that.

A down payment now, with measures that take effect early rather than at the end of the forecast, would make the plans more credible. It would also set the UK apart at a time when many of its international peers are struggling to produce credible plans of their own, and that should mean lower borrowing costs.

Notes to Editors:

• For media queries, please contact Owen Evans (Ipsos) at [email protected] or Luca Pieri (NIESR) at [email protected]
• For the full findings, please visit the Ipsos and NIESR websites where tables and charts will be published.
• Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,080 online British adults aged 18–75. Polling was conducted online between 9–13 October 2026.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.