Party Support In 2002

The general impression of the political scene over the last few months has been of gradually crumbling support for the government, as measured in tumbling satisfaction ratings, but tempered by reluctance to swing to the Tories, with a consequent seepage towards the Lib Dems and Labour support otherwise holding up better than might otherwise be the case - but this has been based almost entirely on broad-sweep polls, with only speculation about the details.

The general impression of the political scene over the last few months has been of gradually crumbling support for the government, as measured in tumbling satisfaction ratings, but tempered by reluctance to swing to the Tories, with a consequent seepage towards the Lib Dems and Labour support otherwise holding up better than might otherwise be the case - but this has been based almost entirely on broad-sweep polls, with only speculation about the details.

We can now, however, look rather closer. The MORI Voting Intention aggregate for 2002, just released, which combines the results of all the MORI omnibus surveys throughout the year, a total sample size of 38,000 adults, allows much finer analysis of sub-groups of the population than is possible from a single survey. Comparing the results from the first and second half of last year enables us to see exactly who is defecting and who is not, and how rosy the picture is for Labour as we approach Britain's nearest equivalent of America's "mid-term" elections.

The overall voting intention form the entire aggregate was Labour 49%, Conservative 27%, Liberal Democrats 18% and Others 6%, with the Tories and Labour each slipping one point and the Lib Dems gaining two between the first and second halves of the year. One preliminary observation should be made: these figures are not adjusted for turnout and reflect the voting intentions of all adults. Where possible, MORI is now also reporting the voting intention of those in the sample who are absolutely certain to vote, but this information is not available for all the surveys included in the aggregate so the adjustment cannot be made. However, the average effect of excluding those not certain to vote has in recent months been to cut the Labour lead over the Conservatives by between 8 and 10 points. While the turnout factor will not, of course, apply equally to all groups, it should be borne in mind that much of the apparent swing to Labour since the election is made up of the answers of people who did not vote in 2001 and probably will not vote next time either. As a rule of thumb, adding four points to the Tories and one to the Lib Dems while subtracting five from Labour may give a more reasonable indication of the likely result on a very low turnout. The real outcome if there were "a general election tomorrow" would probably be somewhere between the two extremes.

MORI Voting Intention Aggregate, 2002

160 First half 2002 Second half 2002 Change
Con Lab LD Oth Con Lab LD Oth Con Lab LD
160 % % % % % % % % % % %
All 27 50 17 6 26 49 19 6 -1 -1 +2
Sex
Men 27 50 16 6 26 49 18 7 -1 -1 +2
Women 26 51 18 5 26 49 19 6 0 -2 +1
Class
AB 36 37 22 5 35 34 25 6 -1 -3 +3
C1 30 44 20 6 30 43 21 6 0 -1 +1
C2 25 56 14 6 23 53 17 7 -2 -3 +3
DE 18 62 13 6 18 62 13 7 0 0 0
Age
15-24 15 60 18 7 15 58 19 7 0 -2 +1
25-34 18 59 16 7 19 57 17 7 +1 -2 +1
35-44 23 54 16 6 21 52 19 8 -2 -2 +3
45-54 27 47 20 6 24 47 21 8 -3 0 +1
55-64 32 45 18 5 30 44 20 6 -2 -1 +2
65+ 36 44 16 4 36 43 17 4 0 -1 +1
Age by sex
15-24 M 18 57 17 8 17 53 21 9 -1 -4 +4
25-34 M 20 55 17 9 21 53 18 8 +1 -2 +1
35-44 M 23 54 16 7 22 51 17 10 -1 -3 +1
45-54 M 25 48 18 8 22 50 20 9 -3 +2 +2
55-64 M 32 46 16 6 29 46 18 7 -3 0 +2
65+ M 35 46 14 4 35 44 16 5 0 -2 +2
15-24 W 12 63 18 7 14 62 18 6 +2 -1 0
25-34 W 17 62 16 6 19 59 16 6 +2 -3 0
35-44 W 23 54 17 6 21 53 20 7 -2 -1 +3
45-54 W 27 46 21 5 25 45 22 7 -2 -1 +1
55-64 W 32 44 19 5 31 42 22 5 -1 -2 +3
65+ W 37 42 18 3 37 42 17 4 0 0 -1
Region
London 21 56 18 5 21 54 20 5 0 -2 +2
Scotland 12 51 10 27 12 50 10 27 0 -1 0
North-East 19 64 15 2 18 66 14 2 -1 +2 -1
North-West 23 61 15 1 25 57 15 2 +2 -4 0
Yorks & Humber 29 51 18 2 26 53 18 3 -3 +2 0
East Midlands 28 57 12 3 27 54 16 2 -1 -3 +4
West Midlands 29 52 15 4 30 51 14 4 +1 -1 -1
Wales 14 67 8 11 14 60 12 14 0 -7 +4
South-West 35 37 25 4 32 35 28 4 -3 -2 +3
Eastern 34 43 20 3 36 39 22 4 +2 -4 +2
South East 36 39 22 3 32 39 25 4 -4 0 +3
Newspaper readership
Daily Express 39 39 18 4 39 40 18 3 0 +1 0
Daily Mail 49 31 17 4 47 31 18 5 -2 0 +1
The Mirror 10 76 11 3 11 74 13 3 +1 -2 +2
Daily Record 7 62 6 25 7 62 5 27 0 0 -1
Daily Telegraph 57 22 17 5 58 19 19 4 +1 -3 +2
The Guardian 6 58 26 9 7 53 30 10 +1 -5 +4
The Independent 11 44 37 9 12 43 38 7 +1 -1 +1
Daily Star 13 70 10 6 16 69 10 5 +3 -1 0
The Sun 22 61 12 6 21 60 12 8 -1 -1 0
The Times 33 36 27 4 32 37 26 5 -1 +1 -1
None of these 23 52 20 5 23 49 22 6 0 -3 +2

Source: MORI Social Research Institute Base: 38,142 British adults 18+, January-December 2002

As at the general election in 2001, the "gender gap" is virtually non-existent. Men and women support the parties in equal proportions, and there was no significant change from the first half of the year to the second. The traditional class distinctions remain however, though narrower than they were thirty or forty years ago. While Labour still retains a respectable foothold of support among the professional ABs, its support is beginning to slip - but to the Lib Dems, not the Tories. A similar pattern is evident among the C2s.

The Lib Dems are gaining slightly among all age groups, but the pattern is more complex when each age group is divided into men and women. While men of all ages have switched over the second half of last year towards the Lib Dems, young women moved instead to the Tories; but women over 35 have moved - a little - from both Tories and Labour to Lib Dems.

Regionally, plummeting Labour support in Wales, with both Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru benefiting, should ring alarm bells ahead of the Welsh Assembly elections, but the Labour vote is holding up better in Scotland. The Lib Dems will note that their greatest gains are mainly in southern England - exactly where they can be most efficacious, helping to seize Tory seats, rather than wasted in the north where the Lib Dems often lie either third or too far behind Labour for realistic hopes. The message here is as bleak for Iain Duncan Smith as for Tony Blair, maybe bleaker.

Immediately of interest in the readership tables are the indications of a differential swing from Labour to the Lib Dems, curiously concentrated especially among readers of two very contrasting titles, the Guardian and the Daily Telegraph. The same swing can be seen among those not reading any national daily title regularly, who might be considered a "control group", so it is perhaps of more interest to note those titles whose readerships do not seem to be deserting Mr Blair for Mr Kennedy: intriguingly these include the other left-leaning broadsheet, the Independent, as well as the Daily Mail and both ends of Rupert Murdoch's spectrum, the Sun and Times. Differing editorial attitudes to Mr Blair's support for President Bush and the possibility of war in Iraq may account for some of these trends.

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