Political Commentary - Blair vs. Thatcher: Public Perceptions Following Resignation Announcements

Tony Blair's legacy has been the topic of discussion across the media and the world of late. His recent announcement of his resignation date has led to a small boost in the polls for the Labour party, according to some of the latest polls. In his speech announcing his intention to go, Blair highlighted some of the key accomplishments of his time as Prime Minister, citing improved healthcare, schools and employment. However, despite comparing favourably to Margaret Thatcher on a number of measures, our latest data shows that Blair's legacy will undoubtedly be overshadowed by the war in Iraq. The findings from our recent poll (link below) are compared to the public's views of Mrs Thatcher immediately after her announcement of her intention to resign in November 1990.

Our recent Ten Years Of Labour Poll (conducted by telephone between 11th and 13th May 2007, immediately after Blair announced his intention to resign on 10th May) shows that about equal numbers of people think Blair's government has been good for the country as think it has been bad for the country (46% and 43% respectively). By comparison, after her announcement of resignation, more than half (52%) thought Thatcher's government had been good for the country, and two in five (40%) thought it had been bad. Considering the similarity of the two leaders' satisfaction ratings at this point in their leadership (Mrs Thatcher's were in fact lower than Blair's), this disparity in attitudes may well be a reflection of Blair's unpopular war in Iraq and his personal alignment with President Bush more than anything else.

This assessment is made all the more likely by the fact that, again compared to Thatcher in 1990, the public now rate Blair's government better for them personally (rather than for the country) than the public at the time rated Mrs Thatcher's Government.

A level of 'personal' preference for Blair over Thatcher is again evident in another of our findings. We asked respondents to say which of a series of four statements comes closest to their view of Mr Blair. These statements are:

• I like Mr Blair and I like his policies
• I like Mr Blair but I dislike his policies
• I dislike Mr Blair but I like his policies
• I dislike Mr Blair and I dislike his policies

When we sum up those who say they like Blair (regardless of his policies), we find 57% say they like him and 37% dislike him, yielding a 'net' (like minus dislike) figure of +20. Similarly, his 'net' figure for liking his policies is -28 (33% like his policies and 61% dislike them). This finding is in fact an improvement for Blair since the General Election in April 2005, where 44% said they like Blair and 47% that they dislike him (net = -3). This bump in popularity is likely related to Blair's resignation announcement, and also may reflect a positive reaction to his speech, which was fairly well received and highlighted some of his key achievements.

In comparison, Mrs Thatcher's ratings on this question in November 1990 were far more negative, with 39% saying they liked her and 60% that they disliked her (net = -21). Despite this low personal rating, we might expect that the public's view of her policies would have been more positive, considering that more than half of the public at this time thought that her government had been good for the country. However, fewer people said they liked her policies than now say they like Blair's: just 28% in 1990 said they liked her policies, and 71% disliked them (net = -43).

It must of course be kept in mind that Mrs Thatcher left office after being challenged internally by a member of her own cabinet - a cabinet which then refused to back her in a second round of leadership elections. This fall from grace was certainly more sudden, and arguably more dramatic, than Blair's long and drawn-out departure. Blair, after all, announced soon after winning a third election for Labour that he would not be running for a fourth; he also made it clear at the end of 2006 that he would be resigning the following summer. However, the differences in how they left office do not necessarily mean that the public should view their accomplishments in office differently. While Thatcher may not have been hugely liked personally by the public, her time as leader was seen by the (slim) majority as having taken the country in a good direction. On the other hand, the data paints a picture of Blair as a fairly popular individual whose decision to back the United States in taking Britain to war in Iraq destroyed his public backing.