Political Commentary - Nick Clegg Elected New Leader Of The Liberal Democrats

Yesterday the Liberal Democrat party elected Nick Clegg their new leader. This will likely yield a boost in the polls for the Liberal Democrats, who have been trailing in recent months: Ipsos's December Political Monitor has the Liberal Democrats on 14%, and their share hasn't risen above 20% since the summer of 2006 -- Voting Intention in Great Britain.

Clegg takes over party leadership from Sir Menzies Campbell, who saw a boost to 25% in voting intention for the Lib Dems upon taking over from Charles Kennedy as leader in March 2006 . However, public satisfaction with Campbell swiftly declined and his last satisfaction rating before his resignation in September 2007 found 24% of the public satisfied with him and 35% dissatisfied -- and two in five (41%) saying they 'don't know'.

Traditionally, political parties get a 'bump' in the polls when they change leader; recent evidence of this is the 'Brown Bounce' in July and August this year. However, Clegg will need to make a real impact with the voters early on if he is to bring the Lib Dem vote share back up to the level it remained at between 2003 -- 05 when Kennedy was leader and the Lib Dem share ranged between 18-26%. Brown's recent drop in popularity and the Conservatives' corresponding jump in the polls are reminders that an early bounce does not necessarily yield longer-term success. Clegg will need to make an impression on the public early on, as he is a relative unknown; Campbell and Kennedy (and even acting leader Vince Cable) had all been in politics long enough for voters to have some -- if not much -- knowledge about them. Clegg's immediate challenge is to get to know the public so that they can begin to formulate opinions on and attitudes towards him; in particular this means ensuring that the Lib Dems stay in the media, a task they find difficult outside election time.